Liga MX · Apertura - 8
Santos LagunavFC Juarez
Santos Laguna
FC Juarez·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.5–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Santos Laguna and FC Juarez finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| San / FC | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Santos Laguna down the side and FC Juarez across. These 99.2% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.8% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 33% against 34%.
What we think
- Santos Laguna40% · Match result
- Over 2.555% · Goals
- Yes57% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Santos Laguna the most likely of the three results, at 40% (we would not be surprised by anything from 25% to 55%). Most likely is not likely: at 40% this result does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 48%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 55%, which is what the market has it at too (56%).
For comparison, the market gives Santos Laguna a 48% chance. Our model makes it 40%.
2Market
Open: 48% home · 25% draw · 26% away
Now: 48% home · 25% draw · 26% away
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Santos Laguna
Confirmed · 3-4-3
No reported absences.
FC Juarez
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Santos LagunaLDLLL
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Cruz Azul 0–1
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Tigres UANL 0–0(xG 0.9–1.3)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Puebla 2–3
- Mon 17 Aug · H v Guadalajara Chivas 0–1
- Sun 2 Aug · A v Club America 0–3
FC JuarezLLLLL
- Sat 5 Sep · H v CF Pachuca 0–2
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Toluca 0–4
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Club America 1–2
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Monterrey 1–6
- Sat 1 Aug · H v U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1–5
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Santos Laguna have won 0 of their last 5.
- Santos Laguna have scored in 1 of their last 5.
- 2 of Santos Laguna's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Santos Laguna's last 5.
- Santos Laguna kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- FC Juarez have won 0 of their last 5.
- FC Juarez have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 4 of FC Juarez's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of FC Juarez's last 5.
- FC Juarez kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Santos Laguna
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
FC Juarez
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Estadio TSM Corona, Torreon · Referee: Guillermo Pacheco Larios, Mexico
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Santos Laguna vs FC Juarez?
- Our model makes Santos Laguna the most likely result at 40%. Most likely is not likely — at 40% it does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 48%.
- How many goals are expected in Santos Laguna vs FC Juarez?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 55%, and under 2.5 at 45%.
- Will both teams score in Santos Laguna vs FC Juarez?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance, against 43% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Santos Laguna vs FC Juarez?
- Santos Laguna line up in a 3-4-3, FC Juarez in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.