Süper Lig · Regular Season - 5
Gaziantep FKvFenerbahçe
Gaziantep FK
Fenerbahçe·
0 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.1–2.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–2 (10%), then 1-1 (9%), 0-2 (8%). Gaziantep FK and Fenerbahçe finish on some other score 73% of the time.
| Gaz / Fen | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Gaziantep FK down the side and Fenerbahçe across. These 96.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 3.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 64% against 56%.
What we think
- Fenerbahçe64% · Match result
- Over 2.564% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Fenerbahçe the most likely of the three results, at 64% (we would not be surprised by anything from 46% to 75%). Most likely is not likely: at 64% this result does not happen 36% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 64%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 64%, against the market’s 56% — a 8 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Fenerbahçe a 64% chance. Our model makes it 64%.
2Market
Open: 15% home · 22% draw · 63% away
Now: 15% home · 22% draw · 64% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Fenerbahçe
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Gaziantep FK
Lineup not yet confirmed
- N. Sangare — out (Back Injury)
- A. O. Kalin — out (Inactive)
- S. Hansen — out (Injury)
- F. Bavuk — out (Injury)
- J. Bacuna — out (Red Card)
- B. Ndiaye — out (Injury)
Fenerbahçe
Lineup not yet confirmed
- M. Muldur — out (Knee Injury)
- D. Livakovic — out (Transfer negotiations)
- Talisca — out (Inactive)
- M. Asensio — out (Muscle Injury)
- K. Akturkoglu — out (Concussion)
- C. Soyuncu — out (Injury)
- J. Oosterwolde — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- A. Musaba — out (Injury)
- M. Gunok — out (Muscle Injury)
- Ederson — out (Illness)
- A. Diouf — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Gaziantep FKWLWD
- Mon 7 Sep · A v Göztepe 4–2
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Rizespor 1–2(xG 0.8–1.2)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Eyüpspor 1–0
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Alanyaspor 1–1
FenerbahçeLWWL
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Beşiktaş 1–2
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Samsunspor 2–0(xG 1.6–0.5)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Konyaspor 4–2
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Gaziantep FK have won 2 of their last 4.
- Gaziantep FK have scored in 4 of their last 4.
- 2 of Gaziantep FK's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Gaziantep FK's last 4.
- Gaziantep FK kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.
- Fenerbahçe have won 2 of their last 4.
- Fenerbahçe have scored in 4 of their last 4.
- 3 of Fenerbahçe's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Fenerbahçe's last 4.
- Fenerbahçe kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Gaziantep FK
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Fenerbahçe
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep · Referee: M. Turkmen
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe?
- Our model makes Fenerbahçe the most likely result at 64%. Most likely is not likely — at 64% it does not happen 36% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 64%.
- How many goals are expected in Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 64%, and under 2.5 at 36%.
- Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe?
- Gaziantep FK's reported absences and doubts include N. Sangare, A. O. Kalin, S. Hansen, F. Bavuk and 2 others. Fenerbahçe's include M. Muldur, D. Livakovic, Talisca, M. Asensio and 7 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.