Serie A · Regular Season - 4
ComovParma
Como
Parma·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.7–0.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (15%), then 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (11%). Como and Parma finish on some other score 61% of the time.
| Com / Par | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Como down the side and Parma across. These 99.1% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.9% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 50% against 60%.
What we think
- Como62% · Match result
- Under 2.550% · Goals
- No50% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 73% against a market price of 63% — 10 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 72% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 2.3 goals, and 2.1 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- Their last 4 meetings averaged 1.0 goals.
- 8 players reported unavailable — 2 for Como, 6 for Parma.
Our forecast makes Como the most likely of the three results, at 62% (we would not be surprised by anything from 53% to 70%). Most likely is not likely: at 62% this result does not happen 38% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 80%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 50%, against the market’s 60% — a 10 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Como a 80% chance. Our model makes it 62%.
2Market
Open: 80% home · 14% draw · 5% away
Now: 80% home · 14% draw · 6% away
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Como
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- M. Kean — doubtful (Transfer negotiations)
- J. Addai — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
Parma
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- A. Bernabe — out (Thigh Injury)
- L. Valenti — out (Coach's decision)
- O. Diallo — out (Injury)
- A. Joujou — out (Inactive)
- S. Britschgi — out (Yellow Cards)
- H. Nicolussi Caviglia — out (Groin Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
ComoWWDWW
- Fri 4 Sep · A v Genoa 4–1
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Napoli 2–1(xG 1.0–1.4)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Udinese 1–1
- Sun 24 May · A v Cremonese 4–1
- Sun 17 May · H v Parma 1–0
ParmaDLLWL
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Monza 1–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Juventus 0–2(xG 0.2–1.7)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Cagliari 0–1
- Sun 24 May · H v Sassuolo 1–0
- Sun 17 May · A v Como 0–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Como have won 4 of their last 5.
- Como have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Como's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Como's last 5.
- Como kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Parma have won 1 of their last 5.
- Parma have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 0 of Parma's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Parma's last 5.
- Parma kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 4 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 4 meetings, Como have won 2, Parma 0, with 2 drawn.
- Como W–D–L
- 2–2–0
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 4
- Both scored
- 1 of 4
- Como 1–0 Parma
- Parma 0–0 Como
- Parma 0–1 Como
- Como 1–1 Parma
7Context
Como
Rest: 10 days · 1 match in 14d
Parma
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como · Referee: Giuseppe Mucera, Italy
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Como vs Parma?
- Our model makes Como the most likely result at 62%. Most likely is not likely — at 62% it does not happen 38% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 80%.
- How many goals are expected in Como vs Parma?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 50%, and under 2.5 at 50%.
- Will both teams score in Como vs Parma?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 50% chance, against 50% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Como vs Parma?
- Como's reported absences and doubts include M. Kean, J. Addai. Parma's include A. Bernabe, L. Valenti, O. Diallo, A. Joujou and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Como vs Parma?
- Como line up in a 4-2-3-1, Parma in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Como and Parma?
- In their last 4 meetings, Como have won 2, Parma 0, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 0 of those 4 meetings, and both teams scored in 1.