Liga MX · Apertura - 9
CF PachucavClub Tijuana
CF Pachuca
Club Tijuana·
2 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.3–0.8 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (15%), then 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). CF Pachuca and Club Tijuana finish on some other score 60% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| CF / Clu | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 15 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, CF Pachuca down the side and Club Tijuana across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 46% against 52%.
What we think
- CF Pachuca48% · Match result
- Under 2.554% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes CF Pachuca the most likely of the three results, at 48% (we would not be surprised by anything from 34% to 63%). Most likely is not likely: at 48% this result does not happen 52% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 57%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 46%, against the market’s 52% — a 6 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives CF Pachuca a 57% chance. Our model makes it 48%.
2Market
Open: 57% home · 24% draw · 19% away
Now: 57% home · 24% draw · 19% away
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
CF Pachuca
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Club Tijuana
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
CF PachucaWWDDL
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Atlante FC 3–0
- Sat 5 Sep · A v FC Juarez 2–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Guadalajara Chivas 1–1(xG 1.5–1.4)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Atletico San Luis 1–1
- Tue 18 Aug · H v Puebla 2–3
Club TijuanaLWLWD
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Club Queretaro 0–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2–0(xG 2.5–0.4)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Guadalajara Chivas 2–5
- Mon 17 Aug · H v Cruz Azul 2–1
- Sat 1 Aug · A v Atletico San Luis 0–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- CF Pachuca have won 2 of their last 5.
- CF Pachuca have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 2 of CF Pachuca's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of CF Pachuca's last 5.
- CF Pachuca kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Club Tijuana have won 2 of their last 5.
- Club Tijuana have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Club Tijuana's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Club Tijuana's last 5.
- Club Tijuana kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
CF Pachuca
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Club Tijuana
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Estadio Hidalgo, Pachuca de Soto · Referee: Jorge Abraham Camacho Peregrina
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win CF Pachuca vs Club Tijuana?
- Our model makes CF Pachuca the most likely result at 48%. Most likely is not likely — at 48% it does not happen 52% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 57%.
- How many goals are expected in CF Pachuca vs Club Tijuana?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 46%, and under 2.5 at 54%.
- Will both teams score in CF Pachuca vs Club Tijuana?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for CF Pachuca vs Club Tijuana?
- CF Pachuca line up in a 4-2-3-1, Club Tijuana in a 4-1-4-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.