Liga MX · Apertura - 9
Club QueretarovLeon
Club Queretaro
Leon·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.4–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (14%), then 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (11%). Club Queretaro and Leon finish on some other score 62% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Clu / Leo | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Club Queretaro down the side and Leon across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 25% against 32%.
What we think
- Club Queretaro47% · Match result
- Under 2.553% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Club Queretaro the most likely of the three results, at 47% (we would not be surprised by anything from 31% to 62%). Most likely is not likely: at 47% this result does not happen 53% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Leon the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 36%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 47%, against the market’s 54% — a 7 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Leon a 37% chance. Our model makes it 24%.
2Market
Open: 37% home · 27% draw · 37% away
Now: 36% home · 27% draw · 37% away
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Club Queretaro
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Leon
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Club QueretaroWWLDW
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Club Tijuana 1–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Atlas 3–1(xG 1.4–1.1)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Toluca 1–2
- Sun 16 Aug · A v U.N.A.M. - Pumas 0–0
- Sat 1 Aug · H v Tigres UANL 3–2
LeonWLDWW
- Tue 15 Sep · H v Atletico San Luis 2–0
- Fri 11 Sep · A v U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1–3
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Atlante FC 1–1(xG 1.4–1.1)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Monterrey 2–0
- Tue 18 Aug · A v Necaxa 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Club Queretaro have won 3 of their last 5.
- Club Queretaro have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Club Queretaro's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Club Queretaro's last 5.
- Club Queretaro kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Leon have won 3 of their last 5.
- Leon have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 2 of Leon's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Leon's last 5.
- Leon kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Club Queretaro
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Leon
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estadio La Corregidora, Santiago Querétaro · Referee: Ismael Rosario Lopez Penuelas, Mexico
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Club Queretaro vs Leon?
- Our model makes Club Queretaro the most likely result at 47%. Most likely is not likely — at 47% it does not happen 53% of the time. The market instead favours Leon at 37%.
- How many goals are expected in Club Queretaro vs Leon?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 47%, and under 2.5 at 53%.
- Will both teams score in Club Queretaro vs Leon?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Club Queretaro vs Leon?
- Club Queretaro line up in a 4-2-3-1, Leon in a 4-1-4-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.