Liga MX · Apertura - 9
TolucavSantos Laguna
Toluca
Santos Laguna·
2 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.3–0.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (13%), then 1-0 (11%), 3-0 (10%). Toluca and Santos Laguna finish on some other score 66% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Tol / San | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Toluca down the side and Santos Laguna across. These 96.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 3.1% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 35% against 51%.
What we think
- Toluca73% · Match result
- Over 2.558% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 65% against a market price of 49% — 16 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 67% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 2.5 goals, and 2.1 expected across the 1 we have expected goals for.
Our forecast makes Toluca the most likely of the three results, at 73% (we would not be surprised by anything from 59% to 85%). Most likely is not likely: at 73% this result does not happen 27% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 79%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 58%, against the market’s 72% — a 14 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Toluca a 79% chance. Our model makes it 73%.
2Market
Open: 79% home · 13% draw · 8% away
Now: 79% home · 13% draw · 8% away
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Toluca
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Santos Laguna
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
TolucaWWWWD
- Wed 16 Sep · A v Puebla 1–0
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Atlas 5–2
- Mon 31 Aug · H v FC Juarez 4–0
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Club Queretaro 2–1
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Atlante FC 0–0
Santos LagunaWLDLL
- Mon 14 Sep · H v FC Juarez 2–1
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Cruz Azul 0–1
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Tigres UANL 0–0(xG 0.9–1.3)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Puebla 2–3
- Mon 17 Aug · H v Guadalajara Chivas 0–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Toluca have won 4 of their last 5.
- Toluca have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Toluca's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Toluca's last 5.
- Toluca kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
- Santos Laguna have won 1 of their last 5.
- Santos Laguna have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 2 of Santos Laguna's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Santos Laguna's last 5.
- Santos Laguna kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Toluca
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Santos Laguna
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca · Referee: Luis Alfredo Garcia Rodriguez
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Toluca vs Santos Laguna?
- Our model makes Toluca the most likely result at 73%. Most likely is not likely — at 73% it does not happen 27% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 79%.
- How many goals are expected in Toluca vs Santos Laguna?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 58%, and under 2.5 at 42%.
- Will both teams score in Toluca vs Santos Laguna?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Toluca vs Santos Laguna?
- Toluca line up in a 4-2-3-1, Santos Laguna in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.