Liga MX · Apertura - 8
LeonvAtletico San Luis
Leon
Atletico San Luis·
1Headline
We expect
2–11.3–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Leon and Atletico San Luis finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Leo / Atl | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Leon down the side and Atletico San Luis across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
What we think
- Leon37% · Match result
- Over 1.575% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Leon the most likely of the three results, at 37% (we would not be surprised by anything from 23% to 54%). Most likely is not likely: at 37% this result does not happen 63% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Yesterday, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Leon
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Atletico San Luis
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
LeonDWWWL
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Atlante FC 1–1(xG 1.4–1.1)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Monterrey 2–0
- Tue 18 Aug · A v Necaxa 2–1
- Sun 2 Aug · H v CF Pachuca 1–0
- Sat 25 Jul · A v Club Tijuana 0–1
Atletico San LuisWDLDD
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Monterrey 3–1(xG 1.3–2.3)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v CF Pachuca 1–1
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Club America 0–3
- Sat 1 Aug · H v Club Tijuana 0–0
- Sun 26 Jul · A v Tigres UANL 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going, and how these two have met — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter.
- Leon have won 3 of their last 5.
- Leon have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 1 of Leon's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Leon's last 5.
- Leon kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Atletico San Luis have won 1 of their last 5.
- Atletico San Luis have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Atletico San Luis's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Atletico San Luis's last 5.
- Atletico San Luis kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 0 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Leon
Rest: 17 days · 0 matches in 14d
Atletico San Luis
Rest: 15 days · 0 matches in 14d
Venue unconfirmed
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Leon vs Atletico San Luis?
- Our model makes Leon the most likely result at 37%. Most likely is not likely — at 37% it does not happen 63% of the time.
- Will both teams score in Leon vs Atletico San Luis?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.