Championship · Regular Season - 6
MiddlesbroughvMillwall
Middlesbrough
Millwall·
2 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.5–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (10%). Middlesbrough and Millwall finish on some other score 65% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Mid / Mil | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Middlesbrough down the side and Millwall across. These 99.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 50% against 62%.
What we think
- Middlesbrough50% · Match result
- Under 2.550% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 73% against a market price of 61% — 12 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 82% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.7 goals, and 2.8 expected across the 4 we have expected goals for.
- 24 players reported unavailable — 8 for Middlesbrough, 16 for Millwall.
- The price has moved 5.2% towards Middlesbrough since it opened.
Our forecast makes Middlesbrough the most likely of the three results, at 50% (we would not be surprised by anything from 43% to 58%). Most likely is not likely: at 50% this result does not happen 50% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 66%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 50%, against the market’s 62% — a 12 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Middlesbrough a 66% chance. Our model makes it 50%.
2Market
Open: 61% home · 22% draw · 18% away
Now: 66% home · 20% draw · 14% away
Moved +5pp — the market moved towards Middlesbrough
Solid: the market over 7 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Middlesbrough
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- D. Strelec — out (Transfer negotiations)
- A. Jones — out (Inactive)
- J. Sarmiento — out (Inactive)
- R. Pukstas — out (Transfer negotiations)
- A. Phillips — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- A. Bangura — out (Coach's decision)
- A. Morris — out (Injury)
- T. Conway — out (Ankle Injury)
Millwall
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- K. Lisbie — out (Injury)
- L. Jensen — out (Injury)
- T. Crama — out (Ankle Injury)
- R. Esse — out (Ankle Injury)
- R. Leonard — out (Hamstring Injury)
- M. Luongo — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Sykes — doubtful (Injury)
- J. Metcalfe — out (Red Card)
- C. De Norre — out (Injury)
- J. Coburn — out (Muscle Injury)
- L. Cundle — out (Inactive)
- F. Azeez — out (Abdominal strain)
- M. Servais — out (Hamstring Injury)
- D. Mazou-Sacko — out (Calf Injury)
- M. Ivanovic — out (Hamstring Injury)
- A. Doughty — out (Hamstring Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
MiddlesbroughWWDWL
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Norwich 4–3
- Sat 5 Sep · A v QPR 1–0
- Wed 2 Sep · A v Burnley 1–1(xG 1.2–0.6)
- Sat 29 Aug · H v West Brom 3–1(xG 2.5–1.4)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Blackburn 1–2
MillwallLWLLW
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Blackburn 1–3
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Bolton 4–0
- Wed 2 Sep · H v Wrexham 0–3(xG 0.2–0.9)
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Southampton 1–5(xG 1.1–3.2)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Norwich 3–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Middlesbrough have won 3 of their last 5.
- Middlesbrough have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Middlesbrough's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Middlesbrough's last 5.
- Middlesbrough kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Millwall have won 2 of their last 5.
- Millwall have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 5 of Millwall's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Millwall's last 5.
- Millwall kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Middlesbrough
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Millwall
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough · Referee: Robert Madley, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Middlesbrough vs Millwall?
- Our model makes Middlesbrough the most likely result at 50%. Most likely is not likely — at 50% it does not happen 50% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 66%.
- How many goals are expected in Middlesbrough vs Millwall?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 50%, and under 2.5 at 50%.
- Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Millwall?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Middlesbrough vs Millwall?
- Middlesbrough's reported absences and doubts include D. Strelec, A. Jones, J. Sarmiento, R. Pukstas and 4 others. Millwall's include K. Lisbie, L. Jensen, T. Crama, R. Esse and 12 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Middlesbrough vs Millwall?
- Middlesbrough line up in a 4-2-3-1, Millwall in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.