La Liga · Regular Season - 6
Rayo VallecanovEspanyol
Rayo Vallecano
Espanyol·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.5–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (10%). Rayo Vallecano and Espanyol finish on some other score 66% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Ray / Esp | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Rayo Vallecano down the side and Espanyol across. These 99.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 1.5: 75% against 74%.
What we think
- Rayo Vallecano49% · Match result
- Over 2.550% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Rayo Vallecano the most likely of the three results, at 49% (we would not be surprised by anything from 42% to 57%). Most likely is not likely: at 49% this result does not happen 51% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 41%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 50%, which is what the market has it at too (50%).
For comparison, the market gives Rayo Vallecano a 41% chance. Our model makes it 49%.
2Market
Open: 44% home · 28% draw · 28% away
Now: 41% home · 28% draw · 31% away
Moved −3pp — the market moved away from Rayo Vallecano
Solid: the market over 9 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- J. de Frutos — out (Red Card)
- F. Perez — out (Red Card)
- R. Nteka — out (Muscle Injury)
- I. Balliu — out (Ankle Injury)
- M. Kumbulla — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Vertrouwd — out (Muscle Injury)
- I. Palazon — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Batalla — out (Broken calfbone)
- D. Mendez — out (Knee Injury)
- Luiz Felipe — out (Hamstring Injury)
Espanyol
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- O. El Hilali — out (Red Card)
- Jofre — out (Groin Injury)
- A. Gorosabel — out (Injury)
- B. Zaragoza — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Puado — out (Knee Injury)
- K. Garcia — out (Hamstring Injury)
- L. Cabrera — out (Red Card)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Rayo VallecanoLWLDL
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Real Madrid 1–4
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Racing Santander 3–2
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Barcelona 2–5(xG 1.1–2.8)
- Thu 20 Aug · H v Alaves 1–1
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Sevilla 1–2
EspanyolWDLLW
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Osasuna 2–0
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Sevilla 1–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Real Sociedad 1–2(xG 0.8–1.7)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Real Madrid 1–2
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Levante 3–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Rayo Vallecano have won 1 of their last 5.
- Rayo Vallecano have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Rayo Vallecano's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Rayo Vallecano's last 5.
- Rayo Vallecano kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Espanyol have won 2 of their last 5.
- Espanyol have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Espanyol's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Espanyol's last 5.
- Espanyol kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 8 meetings, Rayo Vallecano have won 4, Espanyol 4, with 0 drawn.
- Rayo Vallecano W–D–L
- 4–0–4
- Over 2.5
- 3 of 8
- Both scored
- 2 of 8
- Rayo Vallecano 1–0 Espanyol
- Espanyol 1–0 Rayo Vallecano
- Rayo Vallecano 0–4 Espanyol
- Espanyol 2–1 Rayo Vallecano
- Rayo Vallecano 1–2 Espanyol
- Espanyol 0–2 Rayo Vallecano
- Espanyol 0–1 Rayo Vallecano
- Rayo Vallecano 1–0 Espanyol
7Context
Rayo Vallecano
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Espanyol
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganes · Referee: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Spain
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol?
- Our model makes Rayo Vallecano the most likely result at 49%. Most likely is not likely — at 49% it does not happen 51% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 41%.
- How many goals are expected in Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 50%, and under 2.5 at 50%.
- Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol?
- Rayo Vallecano's reported absences and doubts include J. de Frutos, F. Perez, R. Nteka, I. Balliu and 6 others. Espanyol's include O. El Hilali, Jofre, A. Gorosabel, B. Zaragoza and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol?
- Rayo Vallecano line up in a 4-3-3, Espanyol in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Espanyol?
- In their last 8 meetings, Rayo Vallecano have won 4, Espanyol 4, with 0 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of those 8 meetings, and both teams scored in 2.