La Liga · Regular Season - 6
ElchevReal Madrid
Elche
Real Madrid·
2 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.0–2.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (10%), then 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (10%). Elche and Real Madrid finish on some other score 70% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Elc / Rea | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Elche down the side and Real Madrid across. These 98.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 35% against 53%.
What we think
- Real Madrid59% · Match result
- Over 2.558% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
A half-Kelly stake at the cautious end of our range would be 0.45% of a bankroll, at odds of 2.05. Sizing, not advice: it assumes you can get that price, it is computed at 49% rather than our headline number, and it is halved and capped because the probability is an estimate and no single match should be able to matter much.
- We make this 65% against a market price of 47% — 18 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 85% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.7 goals, and 3.6 expected across the 4 we have expected goals for.
- Their last 6 meetings averaged 3.8 goals.
- 12 players reported unavailable — 5 for Elche, 7 for Real Madrid.
- The price has moved 4.2% towards Real Madrid since it opened.
Our forecast makes Real Madrid the most likely of the three results, at 59% (we would not be surprised by anything from 49% to 67%). Most likely is not likely: at 59% this result does not happen 41% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 81%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 58%, against the market’s 74% — a 16 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Real Madrid a 81% chance. Our model makes it 59%.
2Market
Open: 9% home · 15% draw · 76% away
Now: 6% home · 13% draw · 81% away
Moved +5pp — the market moved towards Real Madrid
Solid: the market over 7 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Elche
Confirmed · 3-4-3
- A. Boayar — out (Muscle Injury)
- T. Lemar — doubtful (Coach's decision)
- Y. Santiago — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Osorio — out (Muscle Injury)
- G. Diangana — out (Knee Injury)
Real Madrid
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- R. Asencio — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Tchouameni — out (Muscle Injury)
- Endrick — out (Muscle Injury)
- Rodrygo — out (Knee Injury)
- T. Pitarch — out (Knee Injury)
- F. Mendy — out (Hip Injury)
- Eder Militao — out (Hamstring Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
ElcheDLLLD
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Athletic Club 1–1
- Mon 7 Sep · H v Real Sociedad 2–3
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Racing Santander 2–3(xG 1.1–1.5)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Barcelona 0–5(xG 0.7–4.4)
- Mon 17 Aug · A v Deportivo La Coruna 1–1
Real MadridWLWWW
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Rayo Vallecano 4–1
- Fri 4 Sep · A v Real Betis 0–1
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Malaga 4–0(xG 2.3–0.7)
- Wed 26 Aug · H v Real Sociedad 4–1(xG 3.1–0.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Espanyol 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Elche have won 0 of their last 5.
- Elche have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Elche's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Elche's last 5.
- Elche kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Real Madrid have won 4 of their last 5.
- Real Madrid have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Real Madrid's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Real Madrid's last 5.
- Real Madrid kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 6 meetings, Elche have won 0, Real Madrid 4, with 2 drawn.
- Elche W–D–L
- 0–2–4
- Over 2.5
- 6 of 6
- Both scored
- 4 of 6
- Real Madrid 4–1 Elche
- Elche 2–2 Real Madrid
- Real Madrid 4–0 Elche
- Elche 0–3 Real Madrid
- Real Madrid 2–2 Elche
- Elche 1–2 Real Madrid
7Context
Elche
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Real Madrid
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche · Referee: Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
8Red flags
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Elche vs Real Madrid?
- Our model makes Real Madrid the most likely result at 59%. Most likely is not likely — at 59% it does not happen 41% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 81%.
- How many goals are expected in Elche vs Real Madrid?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 58%, and under 2.5 at 42%.
- Will both teams score in Elche vs Real Madrid?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Elche vs Real Madrid?
- Elche's reported absences and doubts include A. Boayar, T. Lemar, Y. Santiago, A. Osorio and 1 other. Real Madrid's include R. Asencio, A. Tchouameni, Endrick, Rodrygo and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Elche vs Real Madrid?
- Elche line up in a 3-4-3, Real Madrid in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Real Madrid?
- In their last 6 meetings, Elche have won 0, Real Madrid 4, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of those 6 meetings, and both teams scored in 4.