Eredivisie · Regular Season - 3
AjaxvWillem II
Ajax
Willem II·
5 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.0–0.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (13%), then 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (10%). Ajax and Willem II finish on some other score 63% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Aja / Wil | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Ajax down the side and Willem II across. These 98.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 30% against 62%.
What we think
- Ajax67% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
A half-Kelly stake at the cautious end of our range would be 2.00% of a bankroll, at odds of 2.47. Sizing, not advice: it assumes you can get that price, it is computed at 51% rather than our headline number, and it is halved and capped because the probability is an estimate and no single match should be able to matter much.
- We make this 70% against a market price of 38% — 32 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 90% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.9 goals, and 3.2 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- 23 players reported unavailable — 12 for Ajax, 11 for Willem II.
- The price has moved 4.0% towards Ajax since it opened.
Our forecast makes Ajax the most likely of the three results, at 67% (we would not be surprised by anything from 55% to 76%). Most likely is not likely: at 67% this result does not happen 33% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 88%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, against the market’s 81% — a 28 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Ajax a 88% chance. Our model makes it 67%.
2Market
Open: 84% home · 10% draw · 5% away
Now: 88% home · 8% draw · 4% away
Moved +4pp — the market moved towards Ajax
Solid: the market over 9 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Ajax
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- D. Blind — out (Injury)
- A. Bouwman — out (Injury)
- R. van de Pavert — doubtful (Inactive)
- S. Adingra — out (Foot Injury)
- P. Reverson — out (Injury)
- Y. Regeer — out (Injury)
- M. Carrizo — out (Inactive)
- A. van Axel Dongen — out (Thigh Injury)
- J. Sutalo — out (Injury)
- A. Kaplan — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Faberski — out (Knee Injury)
- R. Bounida — out (Injury)
Willem II
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- V. van Crooij — out (Ankle Injury)
- J. Hoogma — out (Knee Injury)
- K. Boogaard — out (Knock)
- T. Vilhena — out (Inactive)
- L. Abildgaard — out (Inactive)
- T. Didillon Hodl — out (Hamstring Injury)
- H. ter Avest — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- A. Zarrouk — out (Surgery)
- J. Schuurman — out (Knock)
- A. Lachkar — out (Groin Injury)
- A. Culum — out (Foot Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
AjaxWLWDW
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Fortuna Sittard 5–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v PSV Eindhoven 1–3
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Telstar 4–0(xG 2.1–1.1)
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Heerenveen 2–2
- Sun 9 Aug · A v PEC Zwolle 2–0
Willem IIDLDLL
- Fri 11 Sep · A v AZ Alkmaar 1–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Excelsior 0–3
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Heerenveen 2–2(xG 1.7–1.4)
- Sat 15 Aug · H v NEC Nijmegen 1–4
- Sat 8 Aug · A v GO Ahead Eagles 1–4
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Ajax have won 3 of their last 5.
- Ajax have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Ajax's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Ajax's last 5.
- Ajax kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Willem II have won 0 of their last 5.
- Willem II have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Willem II's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Willem II's last 5.
- Willem II kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Ajax
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Willem II
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam · Referee: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Ajax vs Willem II?
- Our model makes Ajax the most likely result at 67%. Most likely is not likely — at 67% it does not happen 33% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 88%.
- How many goals are expected in Ajax vs Willem II?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Ajax vs Willem II?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Ajax vs Willem II?
- Ajax's reported absences and doubts include D. Blind, A. Bouwman, R. van de Pavert, S. Adingra and 8 others. Willem II's include V. van Crooij, J. Hoogma, K. Boogaard, T. Vilhena and 7 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Ajax vs Willem II?
- Ajax line up in a 4-3-3, Willem II in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.