La Liga · Regular Season - 6
AlavesvValencia
Alaves
Valencia·
0 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.3–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Alaves and Valencia finish on some other score 66% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Ala / Val | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Alaves down the side and Valencia across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 49% against 45%.
What we think
- Alaves41% · Match result
- Under 2.551% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Both teams to score: Yes
Best price 1.96 at MarathonbetThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 53% against a market price of 48% — 5 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 66% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 2.7 goals, and 2.2 expected across the 3 we have expected goals for.
- Both sides scored in 4 of those 10.
- Their last 8 meetings averaged 2.3 goals.
- 20 players reported unavailable — 6 for Alaves, 14 for Valencia.
- The price has moved 5.9% towards Alaves since it opened.
Our forecast makes Alaves the most likely of the three results, at 41% (we would not be surprised by anything from 34% to 49%). Most likely is not likely: at 41% this result does not happen 59% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 57%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 49%, against the market’s 45% — a 4 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Alaves a 57% chance. Our model makes it 41%.
2Market
Open: 51% home · 29% draw · 20% away
Now: 57% home · 26% draw · 16% away
Moved +6pp — the market moved towards Alaves
Solid: the market over 9 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Alaves
Confirmed · 3-5-2
- T. Martinez — out (Foot Injury)
- A. Manas — out (Injury)
- M. Rodriguez — out (Ankle Injury)
- N. Valentini — out (Red Card)
- T. Mendes — out (Knee Injury)
- F. Garces — out (Suspended)
Valencia
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- L. Rioja — out (Muscle Injury)
- D. Foulquier — out (Knee Injury)
- C. Tarrega — out (Hamstring Injury)
- M. Diakhaby — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Vazquez — doubtful (Ankle Injury)
- U. Sadiq — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Almeida — doubtful (Injury)
- G. Rodriguez — out (Muscle Injury)
- P. Maffeo — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Mari — out (Leg Injury)
- D. Lopez — out (Knee Injury)
- J. De Haas — out (Ankle Injury)
- J. Copete — out (Ankle Injury)
- S. Canos — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
AlavesLWWDW
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Racing Santander 1–2
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Osasuna 5–2
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Villarreal 1–0(xG 0.8–1.3)
- Thu 20 Aug · A v Rayo Vallecano 1–1
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Getafe 3–0
ValenciaLLLLD
- Fri 11 Sep · A v Sevilla 0–1
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Barcelona 0–5
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Deportivo La Coruna 1–3(xG 1.3–1.4)
- Tue 25 Aug · H v Real Betis 0–1(xG 1.1–0.7)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Celta Vigo 0–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Alaves have won 3 of their last 5.
- Alaves have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Alaves's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Alaves's last 5.
- Alaves kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Valencia have won 0 of their last 5.
- Valencia have scored in 1 of their last 5.
- 2 of Valencia's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Valencia's last 5.
- Valencia kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 8 meetings, Alaves have won 4, Valencia 2, with 2 drawn.
- Alaves W–D–L
- 4–2–2
- Over 2.5
- 4 of 8
- Both scored
- 3 of 8
- Valencia 3–2 Alaves
- Alaves 0–0 Valencia
- Alaves 1–0 Valencia
- Valencia 2–2 Alaves
- Valencia 0–1 Alaves
- Alaves 1–0 Valencia
- Alaves 2–1 Valencia
- Valencia 3–0 Alaves
7Context
Alaves
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Valencia
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz · Referee: Miguel Sesma Espinosa, Spain
8Red flags
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Alaves vs Valencia?
- Our model makes Alaves the most likely result at 41%. Most likely is not likely — at 41% it does not happen 59% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 57%.
- How many goals are expected in Alaves vs Valencia?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 49%, and under 2.5 at 51%.
- Will both teams score in Alaves vs Valencia?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Alaves vs Valencia?
- Alaves's reported absences and doubts include T. Martinez, A. Manas, M. Rodriguez, N. Valentini and 2 others. Valencia's include L. Rioja, D. Foulquier, C. Tarrega, M. Diakhaby and 10 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Alaves vs Valencia?
- Alaves line up in a 3-5-2, Valencia in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Valencia?
- In their last 8 meetings, Alaves have won 4, Valencia 2, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of those 8 meetings, and both teams scored in 3.