Süper Lig · Regular Season - 5
GalatasarayvKocaelispor
Galatasaray
Kocaelispor·
1 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.4–0.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (14%), then 1-0 (11%), 3-0 (11%). Galatasaray and Kocaelispor finish on some other score 64% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Gal / Koc | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Galatasaray down the side and Kocaelispor across. These 96.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 3.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 1.5: 80% against 84%.
What we think
- Galatasaray75% · Match result
- Over 2.558% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Galatasaray the most likely of the three results, at 75% (we would not be surprised by anything from 60% to 88%). Most likely is not likely: at 75% this result does not happen 25% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 78%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 58%, which is what the market has it at too (60%).
For comparison, the market gives Galatasaray a 78% chance. Our model makes it 75%.
2Market
Open: 78% home · 15% draw · 7% away
Now: 78% home · 15% draw · 7% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Galatasaray
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- W. Singo — out (Thigh Injury)
- V. Osimhen — out (Injury)
- M. Lemina — out (Muscle Injury)
- R. Leao — out (Muscle Injury)
- G. Guvenc — out (Muscle Injury)
Kocaelispor
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- T. Gulliksen — out (Hamstring Injury)
- R. Rivas — out (Inactive)
- T. Bingol — out (Inactive)
- B. Petkovic — out (Hamstring Injury)
- A. Jovanovic — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
GalatasarayWWWD
- Fri 4 Sep · A v Başakşehir 3–2
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Göztepe 3–2(xG 2.9–0.6)
- Fri 21 Aug · A v Erzurumspor FK 4–0
- Fri 14 Aug · H v Çorum FK 2–2
KocaelisporWWWL
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Samsunspor 1–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Konyaspor 2–1(xG 0.8–0.8)
- Mon 24 Aug · H v Amed 2–0
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Başakşehir 0–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Galatasaray have won 3 of their last 4.
- Galatasaray have scored in 4 of their last 4.
- 4 of Galatasaray's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Galatasaray's last 4.
- Galatasaray kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.
- Kocaelispor have won 3 of their last 4.
- Kocaelispor have scored in 3 of their last 4.
- 1 of Kocaelispor's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Kocaelispor's last 4.
- Kocaelispor kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Galatasaray
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Kocaelispor
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Rams Park, Istanbul · Referee: A. Karaoglan
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Galatasaray vs Kocaelispor?
- Our model makes Galatasaray the most likely result at 75%. Most likely is not likely — at 75% it does not happen 25% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 78%.
- How many goals are expected in Galatasaray vs Kocaelispor?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 58%, and under 2.5 at 42%.
- Will both teams score in Galatasaray vs Kocaelispor?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Galatasaray vs Kocaelispor?
- Galatasaray's reported absences and doubts include W. Singo, V. Osimhen, M. Lemina, R. Leao and 1 other. Kocaelispor's include T. Gulliksen, R. Rivas, T. Bingol, B. Petkovic and 1 other. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Galatasaray vs Kocaelispor?
- Galatasaray line up in a 4-2-3-1, Kocaelispor in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.