Matchday Briefing
What we think will happen in every match today, with how sure we are — and how often we have been right.
Today's matches
1 match
Liga Profesional Argentina1 match
Segunda División1 match
Eerste Divisie1 match
2 matches
1 match
1 match
1 match
2 matches
What the marks mean, and what the plus does
+Adds a call to your slip. Pick as many as you like, across as many matches, and we will say what the combination is actually worth — including the correction for legs on the same match, which cannot simply be multiplied together.
How much we know about a match yet: confirmed lineups, reported injuries, a settled price, and a forecast we are willing to publish. Four filled means everything we look at has landed. It is not how likely a bet is to win, and a match we know a lot about can still be one to leave alone.
- model vs market — Our number and the market's are far apart. That is a reason to look closely, not a reason to be confident.
- few meetings — These two have played each other too few times for their record against each other to tell you much.
- wide range — Our own range around this forecast is wide. The number is our best estimate, but we are not confident in it.
Today’s bets
Today's 2 are fewer than the 14.7 that chance alone would throw up, so today carries no evidence of an edge. The list is below because our reasoning is worth seeing, not because we are telling you to act on it.
- Las Palmas vValladolidLas PalmasWe make it 57% against a price of 44%. Read the case →
- Girona vMallorcaGirona7 wins in their last 10 between them.We make it 51% against a price of 41%. Read the case →
2 recommended, from 42 priced outcomes weighed · 14.7 expected from chance alone, if we held no edge at all
We recommend; we never guarantee.
What these percentages mean, and what has and has not been tested
Read the count against the number beside it, never on its own. The second figure is exact rather than an estimate: centred on the price, the fraction of outcomes clearing a bar of 65% is exactly 35%.
The percentage on each row is how sure we are that our number is above the price — not the chance the bet wins, and not a claim about profit. A 78% there and a 50% forecast means we think the outcome happens about half the time and we are fairly confident the market has it too low.
How these have actually turned out is on the accuracy page, per market.