Super League 1 · Regular Season - 5
KalamatavPanathinaikos
Kalamata
Panathinaikos·
1Headline
We expect
0–10.8–1.5 goals
Likeliest exact score 0–1 (15%), then 1-1 (13%), 0-2 (11%). Kalamata and Panathinaikos finish on some other score 62% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Kal / Pan | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 15 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Kalamata down the side and Panathinaikos across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Panathinaikos53% · Match result
- Under 2.553% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Panathinaikos the most likely of the three results, at 53% (we would not be surprised by anything from 34% to 72%). Most likely is not likely: at 53% this result does not happen 47% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Yesterday, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 47%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Kalamata
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Panathinaikos
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
KalamataWDLL
- Yesterday · H v Volos NFC 3–1
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Atromitos 1–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Panetolikos 0–2
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Aris Thessalonikis 2–3
PanathinaikosWWWW
- Yesterday · H v Panetolikos 3–0
- Thu 10 Sep · H v Kifisia 3–1
- Sun 6 Sep · H v PAOK 3–1
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Levadiakos 2–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Kalamata have won 1 of their last 4.
- Kalamata have scored in 3 of their last 4.
- 2 of Kalamata's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Kalamata's last 4.
- Kalamata kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.
- Panathinaikos have won 4 of their last 4.
- Panathinaikos have scored in 4 of their last 4.
- 3 of Panathinaikos's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Panathinaikos's last 4.
- Panathinaikos kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Kalamata
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Panathinaikos
Rest: 7 days · 3 matches in 14d
Dimotiko Stadio Paralias, Kalamata
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Kalamata vs Panathinaikos?
- Our model makes Panathinaikos the most likely result at 53%. Most likely is not likely — at 53% it does not happen 47% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Kalamata vs Panathinaikos?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 47%, and under 2.5 at 53%.
- Will both teams score in Kalamata vs Panathinaikos?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.