Serie A · Regular Season - 28
Sao PaulovInternacional
Sao Paulo
Internacional·
1 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.3–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (14%), then 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Sao Paulo and Internacional finish on some other score 63% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Sao / Int | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Sao Paulo down the side and Internacional across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Sao Paulo43% · Match result
- Under 2.553% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Sao Paulo the most likely of the three results, at 43% (we would not be surprised by anything from 37% to 48%). Most likely is not likely: at 43% this result does not happen 57% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 47%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Sao Paulo
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- Pablo Maia — out (Yellow Cards)
- D. Bobadilla — out (Inactive)
- Lucca Marques — out (Jaw injury)
- R. Toloi — out (Muscle Injury)
- E. Diaz — out (Personal Reasons)
- Sabino — out (Injury)
- Luciano — out (Inactive)
- Andre Silva — out (Yellow Cards)
- Jonathan Calleri — out (Yellow Cards)
- Lucas Ramon — out (Injury)
- Lucas Moura — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- A. Franco — out (Muscle Injury)
- Marcos Antonio — out (Hamstring Injury)
Internacional
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- Matheus Bahia — out (Red Card)
- R. Villagra — out (Yellow Cards)
- A. Bernabei — out (Yellow Cards)
- Paulinho Paula — out (Yellow Cards)
- G. Mercado — out (Yellow Cards)
- Victor Gabriel — out (Red Card)
- Thiago Maia — out (Hamstring Injury)
- B. Arhin — out (Hamstring Injury)
- S. Rochet — out (Lower Back Injury)
- Kayky — out (Ankle Injury)
- F. Torres — out (International duty)
- A. Rodriguez — out (Injury)
- Bruno Tabata — out (Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Sao PauloLWWLD
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Palmeiras 0–2
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Atletico-MG 2–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v RB Bragantino 2–1(xG 1.6–0.5)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Chapecoense-sc 0–1
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Coritiba 1–1
InternacionalWLLDD
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Chapecoense-sc 2–1
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Santos 2–3
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Bahia 2–3(xG 1.7–2.4)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Atletico-MG 0–0
- Mon 17 Aug · H v Remo 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Sao Paulo have won 2 of their last 5.
- Sao Paulo have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Sao Paulo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Sao Paulo's last 5.
- Sao Paulo kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Internacional have won 1 of their last 5.
- Internacional have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Internacional's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Internacional's last 5.
- Internacional kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Sao Paulo W–D–L
- 0–1–0
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Internacional 1–1 Sao Paulo
7Context
Sao Paulo
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Internacional
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Morumbi, Sao Paulo · Referee: B. Arleu
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Sao Paulo vs Internacional?
- Our model makes Sao Paulo the most likely result at 43%. Most likely is not likely — at 43% it does not happen 57% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Sao Paulo vs Internacional?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 47%, and under 2.5 at 53%.
- Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Internacional?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Sao Paulo vs Internacional?
- Sao Paulo's reported absences and doubts include Pablo Maia, D. Bobadilla, Lucca Marques, R. Toloi and 9 others. Internacional's include Matheus Bahia, R. Villagra, A. Bernabei, Paulinho Paula and 9 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Sao Paulo vs Internacional?
- Sao Paulo line up in a 3-4-2-1, Internacional in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.