Serie A · Regular Season - 28

FlamengovRB Bragantino

·

2 – 1 (FT)

1Headline

We expect

2–12.1–0.8 goals

Likeliest exact score 2–0 (12%), then 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%). Flamengo and RB Bragantino finish on some other score 67% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.

Probability of each scoreline, Flamengo goals down the side, RB Bragantino across
Fla / RB 012345
06420.50.10.0
11110410.20.0
21210410.20.0
38730.70.20.0
44410.40.10.0
5210.60.20.00.0

Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Flamengo down the side and RB Bragantino across. These 98.0% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 2.0% is spread across higher scores.

Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.

How many goals

Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.

Over 1.5
Over 1.5:, our forecast 79%, market 84%
Over 2.5
Over 2.5:, our forecast 56%, market 63%
Over 3.5
Over 3.5:, our forecast 33%, market 41%

We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 33% against 41%.

What we think

  • Flamengo67% · Match result
  • Over 2.556% · Goals
  • Yes53% · Both teams to score

Our bet on this match

Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5

  • We make this 67% against a market price of 59% — 8 points of difference.
  • Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 73% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
  • Their last 10 matches between them averaged 2.5 goals, and 2.3 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
  • 28 players reported unavailable — 15 for Flamengo, 13 for RB Bragantino.

Our forecast makes Flamengo the most likely of the three results, at 67% (we would not be surprised by anything from 61% to 72%). Most likely is not likely: at 67% this result does not happen 33% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 72%.

Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 56%, against the market’s 63% — a 7 point gap.

For comparison, the market gives Flamengo a 72% chance. Our model makes it 67%.

FlamengoModel 67% [61%–72%]Market 72%
Flamengo:, our forecast 67%, between 61% and 72%, market 72%

2Market

Open: 72% home · 17% draw · 10% away

Now: 72% home · 18% draw · 10% away

How the devigged price moved before kick-off

Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home67%vs72%−5pp
Draw20%vs18%+2pp
Away13%vs10%+3pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.556%vs63%−7pp
Under 2.544%vs37%+7pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.579%vs84%−5pp
Under 1.521%vs16%+5pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.533%vs41%−8pp
Under 3.567%vs59%+8pp

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes53%vs53%0pp
No47%vs47%0pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Flamengo

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

  • E. Pulgar — out (Yellow Cards)
  • Lucas Paqueta — out (Yellow Cards)
  • G. Plata — out (Inactive)
  • Evertton Araujo — out (Thigh Injury)
  • Bruno Henrique — out (Yellow Cards)
  • N. de la Cruz — out (Muscle Injury)
  • Leo Pereira — out (Rest)
  • Everton — out (Illness)
  • Alex Sandro — out (Calf Injury)
  • Luiz Araujo — out (Knee Injury)
  • G. de Arrascaeta — out (International duty)
  • G. Varela — out (Yellow Cards)
  • Jorginho — out (Toe Injury)
  • Danilo — out (International duty)
  • S. Niguez — out (Ankle Injury)

RB Bragantino

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

  • Rodriguinho — out (Inactive)
  • A. Sant'Anna — out (Yellow Cards)
  • I. Pitta — out (Yellow Cards)
  • Fernando Santos — out (Illness)
  • Gustavo Marques — out (Yellow Cards)
  • Fabinho — out (Red Card)
  • Vanderlan — out (Knee Injury)
  • Gabriel — out (Rest)
  • H. Mosquera — out (Yellow Cards)
  • Alix Vinicius — out (Yellow Cards)
  • J. Herrera — out (Inactive)
  • Davi Gomes — out (Knee Injury)
  • Fabricio — out (Ankle Injury)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

FlamengoWWWWL

  • Sun 13 Sep · H v Corinthians 2–1
  • Sun 6 Sep · A v Remo 1–0
  • Wed 2 Sep · H v Mirassol 2–0
  • Sun 30 Aug · H v Botafogo 3–0(xG 1.7–0.8)
  • Sat 22 Aug · A v Cruzeiro 1–2

RB BragantinoDLLWD

  • Sat 12 Sep · A v Botafogo 1–1
  • Sat 5 Sep · H v Bahia 2–3
  • Sat 29 Aug · A v Sao Paulo 1–2(xG 0.5–1.6)
  • Sun 23 Aug · H v Gremio 1–0
  • Sat 15 Aug · A v Atletico Paranaense 1–1

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Flamengo
  • Flamengo have won 4 of their last 5.
  • Flamengo have scored in 5 of their last 5.
  • 3 of Flamengo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 2 of Flamengo's last 5.
  • Flamengo kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
RB Bragantino
  • RB Bragantino have won 1 of their last 5.
  • RB Bragantino have scored in 5 of their last 5.
  • 2 of RB Bragantino's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of RB Bragantino's last 5.
  • RB Bragantino kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.

Flamengo W–D–L
0–0–1
Over 2.5
1 of 1
Both scored
0 of 1
  • RB Bragantino 3–0 Flamengo

7Context

Flamengo

Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d

RB Bragantino

Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d

Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro · Referee: R. Pereira

8Red flags

Common questions

Who will win Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Our model makes Flamengo the most likely result at 67%. Most likely is not likely — at 67% it does not happen 33% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 72%.
How many goals are expected in Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 56%, and under 2.5 at 44%.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Flamengo's reported absences and doubts include E. Pulgar, Lucas Paqueta, G. Plata, Evertton Araujo and 11 others. RB Bragantino's include Rodriguinho, A. Sant'Anna, I. Pitta, Fernando Santos and 9 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Flamengo line up in a 4-2-3-1, RB Bragantino in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.