Serie A · Regular Season - 28
Atletico ParanaensevBahia
Atletico Paranaense
Bahia·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.4–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (9%). Atletico Paranaense and Bahia finish on some other score 66% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Atl / Bah | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Atletico Paranaense down the side and Bahia across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 1.5: 74% against 75%.
What we think
- Atletico Paranaense46% · Match result
- Under 2.551% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Atletico Paranaense the most likely of the three results, at 46% (we would not be surprised by anything from 40% to 53%). Most likely is not likely: at 46% this result does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 43%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 49%, which is what the market has it at too (50%).
For comparison, the market gives Atletico Paranaense a 43% chance. Our model makes it 46%.
2Market
Open: 43% home · 27% draw · 29% away
Now: 43% home · 28% draw · 29% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards the draw
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Atletico Paranaense
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- G. Benavidez — out (Inactive)
- Leo Derik — out (Thigh Injury)
- C. Teran — out (Injury)
- J. Portilla — out (Injury)
- Luiz Gustavo — out (Inactive)
- L. Esquivel — out (Ankle Injury)
- B. Zapelli — out (Ankle Injury)
- Mycael — out (Leg Injury)
- Felipinho — out (Muscle Injury)
- Julimar — out (Ankle Injury)
- Jadson — out (Injury)
- Bruninho — out (Inactive)
- Renan Peixoto — doubtful (Injury)
Bahia
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- Erick — out (Yellow Cards)
- C. Olivera — out (Yellow Cards)
- Michel Araujo — out (Inactive)
- Ademir — out (Injury)
- Everton Ribeiro — out (Inactive)
- David Duarte — out (Yellow Cards)
- Luciano Juba — out (Yellow Cards)
- Leo Vieira — out (Knee Injury)
- Caio Alexandre — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Ronaldo Strada — out (Shoulder Injury)
- M. Sanabria — out (Inactive)
- Gilberto — out (Muscle Injury)
- Ruan Pablo — out (Ankle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Atletico ParanaenseDLDWD
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Coritiba 3–3
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Cruzeiro 1–3
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Fluminense 3–3(xG 1.9–0.6)
- Mon 24 Aug · A v Botafogo 3–2
- Sat 15 Aug · H v RB Bragantino 1–1
BahiaWWWWD
- Mon 14 Sep · H v Remo 2–1
- Sat 5 Sep · A v RB Bragantino 3–2
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Internacional 3–2(xG 2.4–1.7)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Vitoria 2–0
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Chapecoense-sc 3–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Atletico Paranaense have won 1 of their last 5.
- Atletico Paranaense have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Atletico Paranaense's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Atletico Paranaense's last 5.
- Atletico Paranaense kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Bahia have won 4 of their last 5.
- Bahia have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Bahia's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Bahia's last 5.
- Bahia kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Atletico Paranaense W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 1
- Both scored
- 0 of 1
- Bahia 3–0 Atletico Paranaense
7Context
Atletico Paranaense
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Bahia
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
Arena da Baixada, Curitiba · Referee: A. Daronco
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia?
- Our model makes Atletico Paranaense the most likely result at 46%. Most likely is not likely — at 46% it does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 43%.
- How many goals are expected in Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 49%, and under 2.5 at 51%.
- Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia?
- Atletico Paranaense's reported absences and doubts include G. Benavidez, Leo Derik, C. Teran, J. Portilla and 9 others. Bahia's include Erick, C. Olivera, Michel Araujo, Ademir and 9 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia?
- Atletico Paranaense line up in a 3-4-2-1, Bahia in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.