Serie A · Regular Season - 28
CorinthiansvFluminense
Corinthians
Fluminense·
1 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.2–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (14%), then 1-0 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Corinthians and Fluminense finish on some other score 60% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Cor / Flu | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Corinthians down the side and Fluminense across. These 99.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Corinthians42% · Match result
- Under 2.555% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Corinthians the most likely of the three results, at 42% (we would not be surprised by anything from 36% to 47%). Most likely is not likely: at 42% this result does not happen 58% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 45%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Corinthians
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Allan — out (Loan agreement)
- Gabriel Paulista — out (Groin Injury)
- Raniele — out (Red Card)
- Hugo Souza — out (Yellow Cards)
- Breno Bidon — out (Yellow Cards)
- Matheuzinho — out (Inactive)
- Matheus Bidu — out (Inactive)
- Andre Ramalho — out (Inactive)
- Yuri Alberto — out (Muscle Injury)
- Andre — out (Muscle Injury)
- Vitinho — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Depay — out (Rest)
- Charles Rigon — out (Inactive)
- A. Carrillo — out (Yellow Cards)
- Joao Pedro — out (Muscle Injury)
- Gui Negao — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Kaio Cesar — out (Thigh Injury)
- Hugo — out (Knee Injury)
- Felipe Longo — out (Elbow Injury)
- M. Pereira — doubtful (Injury)
- J. Martinez — doubtful (Inactive)
Fluminense
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Thiago Silva — out (Injury)
- Ignacio — out (Injury)
- Guga — out (Inactive)
- G. Cano — out (Injury)
- Alisson — out (Hip Injury)
- Hercules — out (Yellow Cards)
- L. Acosta — out (Yellow Cards)
- John Kennedy — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Freytes — out (Ankle Injury)
- J. Millan — out (Muscle Injury)
- Jemmes — out (Thigh Injury)
- Nonato — out (Yellow Cards)
- A. Canobbio — out (International duty)
- J. Savarino — out (Rest)
- Martinelli — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Matheus Reis — out (Knee Injury)
- F. Bernal — out (Knee Injury)
- PH Ganso — doubtful (Inactive)
- Y. Soteldo — out (Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
CorinthiansLLLLL
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Flamengo 1–2
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Chapecoense-sc 1–2
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Santos 0–1(xG 0.8–1.2)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Coritiba 1–2
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Cruzeiro 1–2
FluminenseLWDWW
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Atletico-MG 1–3
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Vasco DA Gama 1–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Atletico Paranaense 3–3(xG 0.6–1.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Remo 2–1
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Palmeiras 3–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Corinthians have won 0 of their last 5.
- Corinthians have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Corinthians's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Corinthians's last 5.
- Corinthians kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Fluminense have won 3 of their last 5.
- Fluminense have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Fluminense's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Fluminense's last 5.
- Fluminense kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Corinthians W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Fluminense 3–1 Corinthians
7Context
Corinthians
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Fluminense
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Neo Quimica Arena, Sao Paulo · Referee: R. Abatti
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Corinthians vs Fluminense?
- Our model makes Corinthians the most likely result at 42%. Most likely is not likely — at 42% it does not happen 58% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Corinthians vs Fluminense?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 45%, and under 2.5 at 55%.
- Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Fluminense?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Corinthians vs Fluminense?
- Corinthians's reported absences and doubts include Allan, Gabriel Paulista, Raniele, Hugo Souza and 17 others. Fluminense's include Thiago Silva, Ignacio, Guga, G. Cano and 15 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Corinthians vs Fluminense?
- Corinthians line up in a 4-2-3-1, Fluminense in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.