Serie A · Regular Season - 28
VitoriavCruzeiro
Vitoria
Cruzeiro·
1 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
0–11.0–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (14%), then 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (12%). Vitoria and Cruzeiro finish on some other score 62% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Vit / Cru | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Vitoria down the side and Cruzeiro across. These 99.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Cruzeiro36% · Match result
- Under 2.555% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Cruzeiro the most likely of the three results, at 36% (we would not be surprised by anything from 31% to 43%). Most likely is not likely: at 36% this result does not happen 64% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 45%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Vitoria
Lineup not yet confirmed
- Ramon — out (Injury)
- Emmanuel Martinez — out (Injury)
- Caca — out (Suspended)
- Luan Candido — out (Red Card)
- Nathan Mendes — out (Knee Injury)
- Renato Kayzer — out (Yellow Cards)
- Baralhas — out (Inactive)
- Jamerson — out (Hamstring Injury)
- H. Pedro — out (Hand Injury)
- Edu — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- Marinho — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Dudu — out (Back Injury)
- Claudinho — out (Muscle Injury)
- R. Ramos — out (Knee Injury)
Cruzeiro
Lineup not yet confirmed
- N. Villarreal — out (Inactive)
- L. Romero — out (Calf Injury)
- Kenji — out (Inactive)
- Jonathan Jesus — out (Injury)
- Bruno Rodrigues — out (Inactive)
- Matheus Henrique — out (Yellow Cards)
- L. Sinisterra — out (Muscle Injury)
- Fagner — out (Yellow Cards)
- Gerson — out (Yellow Cards)
- K. Arroyo — out (Inactive)
- William Furtado — out (Personal Reasons)
- Kaua Prates — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Kaio Jorge — out (Foot Injury)
- Cassio — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
VitoriaDWLLW
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Mirassol 2–2
- Mon 7 Sep · H v Gremio 1–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Atletico-MG 1–2(xG 0.6–1.5)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Bahia 0–2
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Botafogo 1–0
CruzeiroLWLWW
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Santos 1–2
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Atletico Paranaense 3–1
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Vasco DA Gama 1–3(xG 0.6–3.2)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Flamengo 2–1
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Corinthians 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Vitoria have won 2 of their last 5.
- Vitoria have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Vitoria's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Vitoria's last 5.
- Vitoria kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Cruzeiro have won 3 of their last 5.
- Cruzeiro have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Cruzeiro's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Cruzeiro's last 5.
- Cruzeiro kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Vitoria W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 1
- Both scored
- 0 of 1
- Cruzeiro 3–0 Vitoria
7Context
Vitoria
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Cruzeiro
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estadio Manoel Barradas, El Salvador · Referee: M. Delgado
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Vitoria vs Cruzeiro?
- Our model makes Cruzeiro the most likely result at 36%. Most likely is not likely — at 36% it does not happen 64% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Vitoria vs Cruzeiro?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 45%, and under 2.5 at 55%.
- Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Cruzeiro?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Vitoria vs Cruzeiro?
- Vitoria's reported absences and doubts include Ramon, Emmanuel Martinez, Caca, Luan Candido and 10 others. Cruzeiro's include N. Villarreal, L. Romero, Kenji, Jonathan Jesus and 10 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.