Liga MX · Apertura - 10
Cruz AzulvToluca
Cruz Azul
Toluca·
3 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold prices on this match — the market's own numbers are below — but we have published no forecast of our own for these markets yet, so there is nothing to weigh them against.
We don't have a model forecast for this match yet. Forecasts publish once a fixture is in the model's fitting window — usually a few days before kick-off. Here's what we do have right now:
- • Market prices and price movement
- • Head-to-head record and recent form
- • Lineups and injuries where available
- • Venue, kickoff time, and context
Check back closer to kick-off for our forecast, or explore matches we've already analyzed below.
For comparison, the market gives Toluca a 37% chance. No model forecast has been published for this fixture.
Matches we've forecast today
Here are some matches from today's board that have our model forecasts:
2Market
Open: 36% home · 28% draw · 36% away
Now: 36% home · 27% draw · 37% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from the draw
Solid: the market over 10 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Cruz Azul
Confirmed · 5-3-2
No reported absences.
Toluca
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Cruz AzulLWWWL
- Sun 20 Sep · A v Monterrey 0–1
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Club America 4–3
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Santos Laguna 1–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Necaxa 3–1(xG 1.9–0.4)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Atlas 0–2
TolucaLWWWW
- Mon 21 Sep · H v Santos Laguna 2–3
- Wed 16 Sep · A v Puebla 1–0
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Atlas 5–2
- Mon 31 Aug · H v FC Juarez 4–0
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Club Queretaro 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Cruz Azul have won 3 of their last 5.
- Cruz Azul have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Cruz Azul's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Cruz Azul's last 5.
- Cruz Azul kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Toluca have won 4 of their last 5.
- Toluca have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Toluca's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Toluca's last 5.
- Toluca kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Cruz Azul
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Toluca
Rest: 6 days · 3 matches in 14d
Estadio Banorte, Mexico City · Referee: Katia García
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- What are the confirmed lineups for Cruz Azul vs Toluca?
- Cruz Azul line up in a 5-3-2, Toluca in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.