Liga MX · Apertura - 9
MonterreyvCruz Azul
Monterrey
Cruz Azul·
1 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.1–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 0-1 (11%), 1-0 (9%). Monterrey and Cruz Azul finish on some other score 67% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Mon / Cru | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Monterrey down the side and Cruz Azul across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 28% against 37%.
What we think
- Cruz Azul42% · Match result
- Over 2.550% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Cruz Azul the most likely of the three results, at 42% (we would not be surprised by anything from 29% to 55%). Most likely is not likely: at 42% this result does not happen 58% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Monterrey the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 32%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 50%, against the market’s 59% — a 9 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Monterrey a 43% chance. Our model makes it 30%.
2Market
Open: 43% home · 25% draw · 32% away
Now: 43% home · 25% draw · 32% away
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Monterrey
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Cruz Azul
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
MonterreyDLLWW
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Tigres UANL 0–0
- Mon 31 Aug · H v Atletico San Luis 1–3(xG 2.3–1.3)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Leon 0–2
- Sun 16 Aug · H v FC Juarez 6–1
- Sun 2 Aug · A v Atlas 2–0
Cruz AzulWWWLL
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Club America 4–3
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Santos Laguna 1–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Necaxa 3–1(xG 1.9–0.4)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Atlas 0–2
- Mon 17 Aug · A v Club Tijuana 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Monterrey have won 2 of their last 5.
- Monterrey have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Monterrey's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Monterrey's last 5.
- Monterrey kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Cruz Azul have won 3 of their last 5.
- Cruz Azul have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Cruz Azul's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Cruz Azul's last 5.
- Cruz Azul kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Monterrey
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Cruz Azul
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estadio BBVA, Monterrey · Referee: Jesus Rafael Lopez Valle
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Monterrey vs Cruz Azul?
- Our model makes Cruz Azul the most likely result at 42%. Most likely is not likely — at 42% it does not happen 58% of the time. The market instead favours Monterrey at 43%.
- How many goals are expected in Monterrey vs Cruz Azul?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 50%, and under 2.5 at 50%.
- Will both teams score in Monterrey vs Cruz Azul?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Monterrey vs Cruz Azul?
- Monterrey line up in a 4-2-3-1, Cruz Azul in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.