Liga MX · Apertura - 8
Cruz AzulvClub America
Cruz Azul
Club America·
4 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.3–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (14%), then 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Cruz Azul and Club America finish on some other score 61% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Cru / Clu | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Cruz Azul down the side and Club America across. These 99.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 24% against 32%.
What we think
- Cruz Azul43% · Match result
- Under 2.554% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Cruz Azul the most likely of the three results, at 43% (we would not be surprised by anything from 31% to 55%). Most likely is not likely: at 43% this result does not happen 57% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Club America the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 37%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 46%, against the market’s 54% — a 8 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Club America a 37% chance. Our model makes it 27%.
2Market
Open: 34% home · 27% draw · 39% away
Now: 37% home · 26% draw · 37% away
Moved +3pp — the market moved towards Cruz Azul
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Cruz Azul
Confirmed · 5-3-2
No reported absences.
Club America
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Cruz AzulWWLLL
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Santos Laguna 1–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Necaxa 3–1(xG 1.9–0.4)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Atlas 0–2
- Mon 17 Aug · A v Club Tijuana 1–2
- Sun 2 Aug · H v Atlante FC 2–3
Club AmericaWWWWD
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Puebla 2–0(xG 0.8–0.8)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v FC Juarez 2–1
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Atletico San Luis 3–0
- Sun 2 Aug · H v Santos Laguna 3–0
- Sat 25 Jul · A v Atlante FC 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Cruz Azul have won 2 of their last 5.
- Cruz Azul have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Cruz Azul's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Cruz Azul's last 5.
- Cruz Azul kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Club America have won 4 of their last 5.
- Club America have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Club America's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Club America's last 5.
- Club America kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Cruz Azul
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
Club America
Rest: 14 days · 0 matches in 14d
Estadio Banorte, Mexico City · Referee: Luis Santander, Mexico
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Cruz Azul vs Club America?
- Our model makes Cruz Azul the most likely result at 43%. Most likely is not likely — at 43% it does not happen 57% of the time. The market instead favours Club America at 37%.
- How many goals are expected in Cruz Azul vs Club America?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 46%, and under 2.5 at 54%.
- Will both teams score in Cruz Azul vs Club America?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Cruz Azul vs Club America?
- Cruz Azul line up in a 5-3-2, Club America in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.