La Liga · Regular Season - 6
Real BetisvGetafe
Real Betis
Getafe·
1 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.4–0.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (16%), then 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Real Betis and Getafe finish on some other score 59% of the time.
| Rea / Get | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 16 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Real Betis down the side and Getafe across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 45% against 48%.
What we think
- Real Betis52% · Match result
- Under 2.555% · Goals
- No52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Real Betis the most likely of the three results, at 52% (we would not be surprised by anything from 45% to 59%). Most likely is not likely: at 52% this result does not happen 48% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 60%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 45%, which is what the market has it at too (48%).
For comparison, the market gives Real Betis a 60% chance. Our model makes it 52%.
2Market
Open: 57% home · 25% draw · 17% away
Now: 60% home · 24% draw · 16% away
Moved +3pp — the market moved towards Real Betis
Solid: the market over 11 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Real Betis
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- J. Morante — out (Injury)
- A. Ezzalzouli — out (Knee Injury)
- I. Losada — out (Inactive)
- D. Llorente — out (Broken nose)
- D. Ceballos — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- T. Parrott — out (Inactive)
- A. Ruibal — out (Knee Injury)
- G. Petit — out (Muscle Injury)
- G. Lo Celso — out (Muscle Injury)
- D. Conde — out (Shoulder Injury)
Getafe
Confirmed · 5-3-2
- M. Martin — out (Thigh Injury)
- Kiko Femenia — out (Red Card)
- R. Terrats — out (Inactive)
- B. Mayoral — out (Injury)
- A. Garcia — out (Injury)
- A. Abqar — out (Muscle Injury)
- M. Satriano — doubtful (Injury)
- Z. Romero — out (Red Card)
- Francho — out (Injury)
- C. Uche — out (Knee Injury)
- Juanmi — out (Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Real BetisWWLWW
- Mon 14 Sep · A v Villarreal 2–1
- Fri 4 Sep · H v Real Madrid 1–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Levante 2–5(xG 2.0–3.0)
- Tue 25 Aug · A v Valencia 1–0(xG 0.7–1.1)
- Fri 21 Aug · H v Real Sociedad 1–0
GetafeDDLWL
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Deportivo La Coruna 1–1
- Mon 7 Sep · H v Celta Vigo 1–1
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Osasuna 0–1(xG 0.7–1.7)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Racing Santander 1–0(xG 1.2–1.3)
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Alaves 0–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Real Betis have won 4 of their last 5.
- Real Betis have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 2 of Real Betis's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Real Betis's last 5.
- Real Betis kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
- Getafe have won 1 of their last 5.
- Getafe have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Getafe's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Getafe's last 5.
- Getafe kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Real Betis have won 5, Getafe 2, with 3 drawn.
- Real Betis W–D–L
- 5–3–2
- Over 2.5
- 3 of 10
- Both scored
- 4 of 10
- Getafe 2–0 Real Betis
- Real Betis 4–0 Getafe
- Getafe 1–2 Real Betis
- Real Betis 2–1 Getafe
- Real Betis 1–1 Getafe
- Getafe 1–1 Real Betis
- Real Betis 0–1 Getafe
- Getafe 0–1 Real Betis
- Getafe 0–0 Real Betis
- Real Betis 2–0 Getafe
7Context
Real Betis
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Getafe
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Benito Villamarin, Seville · Referee: José María Sánchez Martínez, Spain
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Real Betis vs Getafe?
- Our model makes Real Betis the most likely result at 52%. Most likely is not likely — at 52% it does not happen 48% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 60%.
- How many goals are expected in Real Betis vs Getafe?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 45%, and under 2.5 at 55%.
- Will both teams score in Real Betis vs Getafe?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 48% chance, against 52% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Real Betis vs Getafe?
- Real Betis's reported absences and doubts include J. Morante, A. Ezzalzouli, I. Losada, D. Llorente and 6 others. Getafe's include M. Martin, Kiko Femenia, R. Terrats, B. Mayoral and 7 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Real Betis vs Getafe?
- Real Betis line up in a 4-2-3-1, Getafe in a 5-3-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Getafe?
- In their last 10 meetings, Real Betis have won 5, Getafe 2, with 3 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 4.