La Liga · Regular Season - 5
VillarrealvReal Betis
Villarreal
Real Betis·
1 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.9–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Villarreal and Real Betis finish on some other score 72% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Vil / Rea | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Villarreal down the side and Real Betis across. These 98.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 36% against 39%.
What we think
- Villarreal53% · Match result
- Over 2.560% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Villarreal the most likely of the three results, at 53% (we would not be surprised by anything from 43% to 61%). Most likely is not likely: at 53% this result does not happen 47% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 49%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 60%, which is what the market has it at too (62%).
For comparison, the market gives Villarreal a 49% chance. Our model makes it 53%.
2Market
Open: 50% home · 24% draw · 26% away
Now: 49% home · 24% draw · 26% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Villarreal
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Villarreal
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- S. Comesana — out (Injury)
- J. Foyth — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- W. Kambwala — out (Transfer negotiations)
- A. Diatta — out (Red Card)
Real Betis
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- J. Morante — out (Injury)
- A. Ezzalzouli — out (Knee Injury)
- I. Losada — out (Inactive)
- D. Llorente — out (Broken nose)
- D. Ceballos — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- T. Parrott — out (Inactive)
- A. Ruibal — out (Knee Injury)
- G. Petit — out (Muscle Injury)
- G. Lo Celso — out (Muscle Injury)
- D. Conde — out (Shoulder Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
VillarrealLLDDW
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Deportivo La Coruna 2–3
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Alaves 0–1(xG 1.3–0.8)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Atletico Madrid 2–2(xG 3.6–0.8)
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Racing Santander 2–2
- Sun 24 May · H v Atletico Madrid 5–1
Real BetisWLWWW
- Fri 4 Sep · H v Real Madrid 1–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Levante 2–5(xG 2.0–3.0)
- Tue 25 Aug · A v Valencia 1–0(xG 0.7–1.1)
- Fri 21 Aug · H v Real Sociedad 1–0
- Sat 23 May · H v Levante 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Villarreal have won 1 of their last 5.
- Villarreal have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Villarreal's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Villarreal's last 5.
- Villarreal kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Real Betis have won 4 of their last 5.
- Real Betis have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 2 of Real Betis's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Real Betis's last 5.
- Real Betis kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Villarreal have won 4, Real Betis 4, with 2 drawn.
- Villarreal W–D–L
- 4–2–4
- Over 2.5
- 5 of 10
- Both scored
- 6 of 10
- Real Betis 2–0 Villarreal
- Villarreal 2–2 Real Betis
- Real Betis 1–2 Villarreal
- Villarreal 1–2 Real Betis
- Real Betis 2–3 Villarreal
- Villarreal 1–2 Real Betis
- Villarreal 1–1 Real Betis
- Real Betis 1–0 Villarreal
- Real Betis 0–2 Villarreal
- Villarreal 2–0 Real Betis
7Context
Villarreal
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Real Betis
Rest: 10 days · 1 match in 14d
Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal · Referee: Francisco Hernandez Maeso, Spain
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Villarreal vs Real Betis?
- Our model makes Villarreal the most likely result at 53%. Most likely is not likely — at 53% it does not happen 47% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 49%.
- How many goals are expected in Villarreal vs Real Betis?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 60%, and under 2.5 at 40%.
- Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Real Betis?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Villarreal vs Real Betis?
- Villarreal's reported absences and doubts include S. Comesana, J. Foyth, W. Kambwala, A. Diatta. Real Betis's include J. Morante, A. Ezzalzouli, I. Losada, D. Llorente and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Villarreal vs Real Betis?
- Villarreal line up in a 4-4-2, Real Betis in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Real Betis?
- In their last 10 meetings, Villarreal have won 4, Real Betis 4, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 6.