La Liga · Regular Season - 6
MalagavVillarreal
Malaga
Villarreal·
1 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.2–1.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Malaga and Villarreal finish on some other score 70% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Mal / Vil | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Malaga down the side and Villarreal across. These 99.0% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.0% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 33% against 38%.
What we think
- Villarreal49% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Villarreal the most likely of the three results, at 49% (we would not be surprised by anything from 38% to 59%). Most likely is not likely: at 49% this result does not happen 51% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 50%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, against the market’s 59% — a 5 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Villarreal a 50% chance. Our model makes it 49%.
2Market
Open: 26% home · 25% draw · 49% away
Now: 25% home · 25% draw · 50% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Malaga
Solid: the market over 10 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Malaga
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
- A. Ochoa — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Cajuste — out (Injury)
- H. Abaida — out (Inactive)
- A. Aznou — out (Muscle Injury)
- F. Calero — out (Ribs Injury)
- A. Pastor — out (Illness)
- C. Dotor — out (Illness)
- A. Nino — out (Injury)
- J. Lobete — out (Knee Injury)
- D. Murillo — out (Injury)
- Juanpe — out (Muscle Injury)
- M. Diarra — out (Calf Injury)
Villarreal
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- S. Comesana — out (Injury)
- J. Foyth — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- W. Kambwala — out (Transfer negotiations)
- A. Diatta — out (Red Card)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
MalagaDDLDL
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Celta Vigo 1–1
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Levante 0–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Real Madrid 0–4(xG 0.7–2.3)
- Mon 24 Aug · H v Deportivo La Coruna 1–1(xG 1.9–1.1)
- Wed 19 Aug · A v Atletico Madrid 0–2
VillarrealLLLDD
- Mon 14 Sep · H v Real Betis 1–2
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Deportivo La Coruna 2–3
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Alaves 0–1(xG 1.3–0.8)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Atletico Madrid 2–2(xG 3.6–0.8)
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Racing Santander 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Malaga have won 0 of their last 5.
- Malaga have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 1 of Malaga's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Malaga's last 5.
- Malaga kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Villarreal have won 0 of their last 5.
- Villarreal have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Villarreal's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Villarreal's last 5.
- Villarreal kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Malaga
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Villarreal
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estadio La Rosaleda, Malaga · Referee: Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias, Spain
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Malaga vs Villarreal?
- Our model makes Villarreal the most likely result at 49%. Most likely is not likely — at 49% it does not happen 51% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 50%.
- How many goals are expected in Malaga vs Villarreal?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Malaga vs Villarreal?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Malaga vs Villarreal?
- Malaga's reported absences and doubts include A. Ochoa, J. Cajuste, H. Abaida, A. Aznou and 8 others. Villarreal's include S. Comesana, J. Foyth, W. Kambwala, A. Diatta. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Malaga vs Villarreal?
- Malaga line up in a 4-1-4-1, Villarreal in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.