Süper Lig · Regular Season - 6

Erzurumspor FKvSamsunspor

·

1 – 0 (FT)

1Headline

We expect

1–01.5–0.9 goals

Likeliest exact score 1–0 (13%), then 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (10%). Erzurumspor FK and Samsunspor finish on some other score 65% of the time.

Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.

Probability of each scoreline, Erzurumspor FK goals down the side, Samsunspor across
Erz / Sam012345
097410.30.0
11313620.40.1
2109410.30.1
35520.70.20.0
4220.80.30.10.0
50.60.60.30.10.00.0

Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Erzurumspor FK down the side and Samsunspor across. These 99.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.5% is spread across higher scores.

Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.

How many goals

Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.

Over 1.5
Over 1.5:, our forecast 74%, no price captured yet
Over 2.5
Over 2.5:, our forecast 50%, no price captured yet
Over 3.5
Over 3.5:, our forecast 27%, no price captured yet

What we think

  • Erzurumspor FK51% · Match result
  • Under 2.550% · Goals
  • Yes52% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.

Our forecast makes Erzurumspor FK the most likely of the three results, at 51% (we would not be surprised by anything from 37% to 67%). Most likely is not likely: at 51% this result does not happen 49% of the time.

Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 50%, with no price captured for it yet.

No market data captured yet for this fixture.

2Market

No odds captured yet.

Match result

Home51%vs—
Draw27%vs—
Away22%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.550%vs—
Under 2.550%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.574%vs—
Under 1.526%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.527%vs—
Under 3.573%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes52%vs—
No48%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Erzurumspor FK

Confirmed · 5-4-1

  • E. Owusu — doubtful (Injury)
  • O. Ovacikli — doubtful (Injury)
  • E. Yigit — out (Suspended)

Samsunspor

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

  • E. Watt — out (Inactive)
  • O. Ohlenschlaeger — out (Inactive)
  • F. Kaya — out (Injury)
  • Marius — out (Inactive)
  • A. Sousa — out (Inactive)
  • A. Makoumbou — out (Inactive)
  • I. Drapinski — out (Inactive)
  • Y. E. Cift — out (Inactive)
  • E. Tavsan — out (Inactive)
  • T. Coulibaly — out (Inactive)
  • J. Assoumou — out (Inactive)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

Erzurumspor FKLWDLL

  • Fri 11 Sep · A v Beşiktaş 0–3(xG 0.4–2.3)
  • Sat 5 Sep · H v Konyaspor 1–0
  • Fri 28 Aug · A v Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–1(xG 0.9–0.8)
  • Fri 21 Aug · H v Galatasaray 0–4
  • Sun 16 Aug · A v Amed 0–3

SamsunsporLLLWD

  • Sat 12 Sep · H v Çorum FK 1–5(xG 0.9–1.5)
  • Sun 6 Sep · A v Kocaelispor 0–1
  • Sun 30 Aug · H v Fenerbahçe 0–2(xG 0.5–1.6)
  • Sat 22 Aug · A v Rizespor 2–0
  • Mon 17 Aug · H v Göztepe 3–3

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Erzurumspor FK
  • Erzurumspor FK have won 1 of their last 5.
  • Erzurumspor FK have scored in 2 of their last 5.
  • 3 of Erzurumspor FK's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 1 of Erzurumspor FK's last 5.
  • Erzurumspor FK kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
Samsunspor
  • Samsunspor have won 1 of their last 5.
  • Samsunspor have scored in 3 of their last 5.
  • 2 of Samsunspor's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 2 of Samsunspor's last 5.
  • Samsunspor kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Erzurumspor FK

Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d

Samsunspor

Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d

Kazim Karabekir Stadyumu, Erzurum · Referee: A. B. Taskinsoy

8Red flags

Common questions

Who will win Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor?
Our model makes Erzurumspor FK the most likely result at 51%. Most likely is not likely — at 51% it does not happen 49% of the time.
How many goals are expected in Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor?
Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 50%, and under 2.5 at 50%.
Will both teams score in Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor?
Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor?
Erzurumspor FK's reported absences and doubts include E. Owusu, O. Ovacikli, E. Yigit. Samsunspor's include E. Watt, O. Ohlenschlaeger, F. Kaya, Marius and 7 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor?
Erzurumspor FK line up in a 5-4-1, Samsunspor in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.