Süper Lig · Regular Season - 6
KasımpaşavKonyaspor
Kasımpaşa
Konyaspor·
0 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.4–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Kas / Kon | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Kasımpaşa down the side and Konyaspor across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 51% against 43%.
What we think
- Kasımpaşa40% · Match result
- Over 2.551% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Kasımpaşa the most likely of the three results, at 40% (we would not be surprised by anything from 26% to 57%). Most likely is not likely: at 40% this result does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 39%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 51%, against the market’s 43% — a 8 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Kasımpaşa a 39% chance. Our model makes it 40%.
2Market
Open: 40% home · 28% draw · 32% away
Now: 39% home · 30% draw · 31% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards the draw
Solid: the market over 8 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Kasımpaşa
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- A. Baldursson — out (Injury)
- M. Ouanes — out (Inactive)
- H. Hajradinovic — out (Inactive)
- T. Diarra — out (Inactive)
- K. Corekci — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
Konyaspor
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- M. Ibrahimoglu — out (Inactive)
- E. Destan — out (Inactive)
- U. Yazgili — doubtful (Injury)
- E. Bardhi — out (Red Card)
- B. Gungordu — out (Injury)
- A. Ndao — out (Suspended)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
KasımpaşaWDDWD
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2–1(xG 1.2–1.1)
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Amed 2–2
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Başakşehir 1–1(xG 1.7–0.8)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Çorum FK 1–0
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Trabzonspor 1–1
KonyasporWLLLL
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Trabzonspor 1–0(xG 1.0–0.8)
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Erzurumspor FK 0–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Kocaelispor 1–2(xG 0.8–0.8)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Fenerbahçe 2–4
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Rizespor 0–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Kasımpaşa have won 2 of their last 5.
- Kasımpaşa have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 2 of Kasımpaşa's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Kasımpaşa's last 5.
- Kasımpaşa kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Konyaspor have won 1 of their last 5.
- Konyaspor have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Konyaspor's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Konyaspor's last 5.
- Konyaspor kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Kasımpaşa
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Konyaspor
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium, Istanbul · Referee: D. Celik
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
- Our model makes Kasımpaşa the most likely result at 40%. Most likely is not likely — at 40% it does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 39%.
- How many goals are expected in Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 51%, and under 2.5 at 49%.
- Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
- Kasımpaşa's reported absences and doubts include A. Baldursson, M. Ouanes, H. Hajradinovic, T. Diarra and 1 other. Konyaspor's include M. Ibrahimoglu, E. Destan, U. Yazgili, E. Bardhi and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
- Kasımpaşa line up in a 4-2-3-1, Konyaspor in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.