Eredivisie · Regular Season - 7
GroningenvPEC Zwolle
Groningen
PEC Zwolle·
3 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.0–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (10%), then 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Groningen and PEC Zwolle finish on some other score 70% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Gro / PEC | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Groningen down the side and PEC Zwolle across. These 98.2% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.8% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 35% against 49%.
What we think
- Groningen60% · Match result
- Over 2.559% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 65% against a market price of 51% — 14 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 70% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 4.3 goals, and 3.2 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- 15 players reported unavailable — 10 for Groningen, 5 for PEC Zwolle.
- The price has moved 5.3% towards Groningen since it opened.
Our forecast makes Groningen the most likely of the three results, at 60% (we would not be surprised by anything from 49% to 70%). Most likely is not likely: at 60% this result does not happen 40% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 64%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 59%, against the market’s 70% — a 11 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Groningen a 64% chance. Our model makes it 60%.
2Market
Open: 59% home · 22% draw · 19% away
Now: 64% home · 20% draw · 16% away
Moved +5pp — the market moved towards Groningen
Solid: the market over 8 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Groningen
Lineup not yet confirmed
- E. van der Laan — out (Inactive)
- W. Prins — out (Inactive)
- T. Hernes — out (Injury)
- N. Brandis — out (Inactive)
- M. Rente — out (Injury)
- R. Metu — out (Injury)
- T. Mercera — out (Injury)
- O. Zawada — out (Knock)
- S. Resink — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Jeng — out (Leg Injury)
PEC Zwolle
Lineup not yet confirmed
- R. Thomas — out (Injury)
- S. Floranus — out (Red Card)
- F. Krastev — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- J. Burger — out (Knock)
- Y. Namli — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
GroningenDDLLW
- Sat 12 Sep · A v GO Ahead Eagles 1–1
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Twente 2–2
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Fortuna Sittard 2–3(xG 1.6–0.9)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v PSV Eindhoven 1–5
- Sun 16 Aug · A v ADO Den Haag 4–1
PEC ZwolleLDLWL
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Feyenoord 0–7
- Fri 4 Sep · A v Sparta Rotterdam 2–2
- Sat 29 Aug · H v NEC Nijmegen 1–3(xG 2.0–1.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Heerenveen 2–0
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Twente 1–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Groningen have won 1 of their last 5.
- Groningen have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Groningen's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Groningen's last 5.
- Groningen kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- PEC Zwolle have won 1 of their last 5.
- PEC Zwolle have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of PEC Zwolle's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of PEC Zwolle's last 5.
- PEC Zwolle kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Groningen
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
PEC Zwolle
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Euroborg, Groningen · Referee: Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
- Our model makes Groningen the most likely result at 60%. Most likely is not likely — at 60% it does not happen 40% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 64%.
- How many goals are expected in Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 59%, and under 2.5 at 41%.
- Will both teams score in Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
- Groningen's reported absences and doubts include E. van der Laan, W. Prins, T. Hernes, N. Brandis and 6 others. PEC Zwolle's include R. Thomas, S. Floranus, F. Krastev, J. Burger and 1 other. Each player's status is in the availability section above.