Eredivisie · Regular Season - 6
PEC ZwollevFeyenoord
PEC Zwolle
Feyenoord·
0 – 7 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.0–2.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–2 (10%), then 0-2 (10%), 1-1 (10%). PEC Zwolle and Feyenoord finish on some other score 71% of the time.
| PEC / Fey | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, PEC Zwolle down the side and Feyenoord across. These 97.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 2.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 36% against 49%.
What we think
- Feyenoord63% · Match result
- Over 2.560% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 64% against a market price of 51% — 13 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 69% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.6 goals, and 3.3 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- 13 players reported unavailable — 5 for PEC Zwolle, 8 for Feyenoord.
Our forecast makes Feyenoord the most likely of the three results, at 63% (we would not be surprised by anything from 52% to 73%). Most likely is not likely: at 63% this result does not happen 37% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 67%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 60%, against the market’s 71% — a 11 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Feyenoord a 67% chance. Our model makes it 63%.
2Market
Open: 15% home · 18% draw · 67% away
Now: 15% home · 18% draw · 67% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
PEC Zwolle
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- R. Thomas — out (Injury)
- S. Floranus — out (Red Card)
- F. Krastev — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- J. Burger — out (Knock)
- Y. Namli — out (Knee Injury)
Feyenoord
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- G. Borges — out (Knock)
- R. Nelson — out (Inactive)
- T. Watanabe — out (Ribs Injury)
- G. Smal — out (Ankle Injury)
- B. Nieuwkoop — out (Injury)
- J. Moder — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Bos — out (Knee Injury)
- T. Beelen — out (Broken Leg)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
PEC ZwolleDLWLL
- Fri 4 Sep · A v Sparta Rotterdam 2–2
- Sat 29 Aug · H v NEC Nijmegen 1–3(xG 2.0–1.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Heerenveen 2–0
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Twente 1–3
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Ajax 0–2
FeyenoordWDWDW
- Sat 5 Sep · A v NEC Nijmegen 3–1
- Sun 30 Aug · H v ADO Den Haag 2–2(xG 2.5–0.2)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Cambuur 5–2
- Sun 16 Aug · H v GO Ahead Eagles 2–2
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Sparta Rotterdam 1–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- PEC Zwolle have won 1 of their last 5.
- PEC Zwolle have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of PEC Zwolle's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of PEC Zwolle's last 5.
- PEC Zwolle kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Feyenoord have won 3 of their last 5.
- Feyenoord have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Feyenoord's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Feyenoord's last 5.
- Feyenoord kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
PEC Zwolle
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Feyenoord
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
MAC³PARK Stadion, Zwolle · Referee: Alex Bos, Netherlands
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord?
- Our model makes Feyenoord the most likely result at 63%. Most likely is not likely — at 63% it does not happen 37% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 67%.
- How many goals are expected in PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 60%, and under 2.5 at 40%.
- Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord?
- PEC Zwolle's reported absences and doubts include R. Thomas, S. Floranus, F. Krastev, J. Burger and 1 other. Feyenoord's include G. Borges, R. Nelson, T. Watanabe, G. Smal and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord?
- PEC Zwolle line up in a 4-2-3-1, Feyenoord in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.