Eredivisie · Regular Season - 6
PSV EindhovenvSparta Rotterdam
PSV Eindhoven
Sparta Rotterdam·
4 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
3–13.1–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 3–0 (9%), then 2-0 (8%), 3-1 (8%). PSV Eindhoven and Sparta Rotterdam finish on some other score 75% of the time. We show 3–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| PSV / Spa | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, PSV Eindhoven down the side and Sparta Rotterdam across. These 90.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 9.1% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 48% against 68%.
What we think
- PSV Eindhoven79% · Match result
- Over 2.572% · Goals
- Yes57% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 52% against a market price of 32% — 20 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 74% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 4.2 goals, and 2.8 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- 16 players reported unavailable — 12 for PSV Eindhoven, 4 for Sparta Rotterdam.
Our forecast makes PSV Eindhoven the most likely of the three results, at 79% (we would not be surprised by anything from 70% to 87%). Most likely is not likely: at 79% this result does not happen 21% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 86%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 72%, against the market’s 84% — a 12 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives PSV Eindhoven a 86% chance. Our model makes it 79%.
2Market
Open: 86% home · 9% draw · 5% away
Now: 86% home · 9% draw · 5% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- A. Nagalo — out (Injury)
- S. Lammers — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- K. Sildillia — out (Injury)
- D. Man — out (Inactive)
- M. Bro Hansen — out (Injury)
- R. van Bommel — doubtful (Injury)
- S. Ouaissa — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Plea — out (Injury)
- J. Veerman — out (Red Card)
- J. Schouten — out (Knee Injury)
- C. Driouech — out (Knock)
- S. Dest — out (Yellow Cards)
Sparta Rotterdam
Confirmed · 3-4-3
- S. Mito — out (Inactive)
- R. van Cruijsen — out (Injury)
- A. Kostic — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- J. Baas — out (Yellow Cards)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
PSV EindhovenWWWWD
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Ajax 3–1
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Utrecht 6–1(xG 3.0–0.3)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Groningen 5–1
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Excelsior 2–1
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Fortuna Sittard 2–2
Sparta RotterdamDLDWL
- Fri 4 Sep · H v PEC Zwolle 2–2
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Excelsior 1–2(xG 1.0–1.3)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Utrecht 3–3
- Fri 14 Aug · A v Telstar 3–1
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Feyenoord 0–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- PSV Eindhoven have won 4 of their last 5.
- PSV Eindhoven have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of PSV Eindhoven's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of PSV Eindhoven's last 5.
- PSV Eindhoven kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Sparta Rotterdam have won 1 of their last 5.
- Sparta Rotterdam have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Sparta Rotterdam's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Sparta Rotterdam's last 5.
- Sparta Rotterdam kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
PSV Eindhoven
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Sparta Rotterdam
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Philips Stadion, Eindhoven · Referee: Danny Makkelie, Netherlands
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam?
- Our model makes PSV Eindhoven the most likely result at 79%. Most likely is not likely — at 79% it does not happen 21% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 86%.
- How many goals are expected in PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 72%, and under 2.5 at 28%.
- Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance, against 43% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam?
- PSV Eindhoven's reported absences and doubts include A. Nagalo, S. Lammers, K. Sildillia, D. Man and 8 others. Sparta Rotterdam's include S. Mito, R. van Cruijsen, A. Kostic, J. Baas. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam?
- PSV Eindhoven line up in a 4-3-3, Sparta Rotterdam in a 3-4-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.