Eredivisie · Regular Season - 6
HeerenveenvTelstar
Heerenveen
Telstar·
0 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.0–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (10%), then 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Heerenveen and Telstar finish on some other score 73% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Hee / Tel | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Heerenveen down the side and Telstar across. These 98.2% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.8% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 38% against 50%.
What we think
- Heerenveen53% · Match result
- Over 2.561% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 62% against a market price of 50% — 12 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 68% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.2 goals, and 3.2 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- 7 players reported unavailable — 5 for Heerenveen, 2 for Telstar.
Our forecast makes Heerenveen the most likely of the three results, at 53% (we would not be surprised by anything from 40% to 64%). Most likely is not likely: at 53% this result does not happen 47% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 60%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 61%, against the market’s 71% — a 10 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Heerenveen a 60% chance. Our model makes it 53%.
2Market
Open: 59% home · 21% draw · 20% away
Now: 60% home · 20% draw · 20% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Heerenveen
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Heerenveen
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- D. Proper — out (Injury)
- M. Hilgers — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Linday — out (Inactive)
- M. Egbring — out (Injury)
- O. Braude — out (Injury)
Telstar
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- N. Thorisson — out (Red Card)
- M. Peersman — doubtful (Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
HeerenveenLDLDW
- Sun 6 Sep · H v AZ Alkmaar 2–3
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Willem II 2–2(xG 1.4–1.7)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v PEC Zwolle 0–2
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Ajax 2–2
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Twente 1–0
TelstarLDLLW
- Wed 9 Sep · A v Twente 0–1
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Cambuur 2–2
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Ajax 0–4(xG 1.1–2.1)
- Fri 14 Aug · H v Sparta Rotterdam 1–3
- Sat 8 Aug · A v NEC Nijmegen 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Heerenveen have won 1 of their last 5.
- Heerenveen have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Heerenveen's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Heerenveen's last 5.
- Heerenveen kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Telstar have won 1 of their last 5.
- Telstar have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 4 of Telstar's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Telstar's last 5.
- Telstar kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Heerenveen
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Telstar
Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d
Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen · Referee: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Heerenveen vs Telstar?
- Our model makes Heerenveen the most likely result at 53%. Most likely is not likely — at 53% it does not happen 47% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 60%.
- How many goals are expected in Heerenveen vs Telstar?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 61%, and under 2.5 at 39%.
- Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs Telstar?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Heerenveen vs Telstar?
- Heerenveen's reported absences and doubts include D. Proper, M. Hilgers, M. Linday, M. Egbring and 1 other. Telstar's include N. Thorisson, M. Peersman. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Heerenveen vs Telstar?
- Heerenveen line up in a 4-2-3-1, Telstar in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.