Eredivisie · Regular Season - 6
ExcelsiorvUtrecht
Excelsior
Utrecht·
1 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.3–1.6 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Excelsior and Utrecht finish on some other score 70% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Exc / Utr | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Excelsior down the side and Utrecht across. These 99.2% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.8% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 32% against 39%.
What we think
- Utrecht44% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes57% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Utrecht the most likely of the three results, at 44% (we would not be surprised by anything from 33% to 54%). Most likely is not likely: at 44% this result does not happen 56% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Excelsior the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 31%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, against the market’s 61% — a 7 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Excelsior a 44% chance. Our model makes it 31%.
2Market
Open: 43% home · 25% draw · 31% away
Now: 44% home · 25% draw · 31% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Excelsior
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Excelsior
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- N. Naujoks — out (Inactive)
- K. Bos — out (Shoulder Injury)
Utrecht
Confirmed · 3-4-3
- O. Agougil — out (Inactive)
- J. van Overeem — out (Inactive)
- M. Broholm — out (Inactive)
- J. van Ommeren — out (Back Injury)
- N. Vesterlund — out (Injury)
- K. Paredes — out (Inactive)
- N. Ohio — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Jonathans — out (Knee Injury)
- V. Jensen — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Engwanda — out (Hamstring Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
ExcelsiorDWWLW
- Tue 8 Sep · A v NEC Nijmegen 2–2
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Willem II 3–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Sparta Rotterdam 2–1(xG 1.3–1.0)
- Sat 15 Aug · H v PSV Eindhoven 1–2
- Fri 7 Aug · A v Cambuur 4–0
UtrechtDLDLL
- Tue 8 Sep · H v GO Ahead Eagles 3–3
- Sun 30 Aug · H v PSV Eindhoven 1–6(xG 0.3–3.0)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Sparta Rotterdam 3–3
- Sat 15 Aug · H v AZ Alkmaar 1–4
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Groningen 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Excelsior have won 3 of their last 5.
- Excelsior have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Excelsior's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Excelsior's last 5.
- Excelsior kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Utrecht have won 0 of their last 5.
- Utrecht have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Utrecht's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Utrecht's last 5.
- Utrecht kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Excelsior
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Utrecht
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam · Referee: Sander van der Eijk, Netherlands
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Excelsior vs Utrecht?
- Our model makes Utrecht the most likely result at 44%. Most likely is not likely — at 44% it does not happen 56% of the time. The market instead favours Excelsior at 44%.
- How many goals are expected in Excelsior vs Utrecht?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Utrecht?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance, against 43% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Excelsior vs Utrecht?
- Excelsior's reported absences and doubts include N. Naujoks, K. Bos. Utrecht's include O. Agougil, J. van Overeem, M. Broholm, J. van Ommeren and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Excelsior vs Utrecht?
- Excelsior line up in a 4-3-3, Utrecht in a 3-4-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.