Eredivisie · Regular Season - 6
GO Ahead EaglesvGroningen
GO Ahead Eagles
Groningen·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.6–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). GO Ahead Eagles and Groningen finish on some other score 72% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| GO / Gro | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, GO Ahead Eagles down the side and Groningen across. These 99.1% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.9% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 35% against 45%.
What we think
- GO Ahead Eagles41% · Match result
- Over 2.559% · Goals
- Yes58% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 65% against a market price of 55% — 10 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 69% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 4.9 goals, and 3.3 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- 15 players reported unavailable — 5 for GO Ahead Eagles, 10 for Groningen.
Our forecast makes GO Ahead Eagles the most likely of the three results, at 41% (we would not be surprised by anything from 30% to 51%). Most likely is not likely: at 41% this result does not happen 59% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 42%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 59%, against the market’s 68% — a 9 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives GO Ahead Eagles a 42% chance. Our model makes it 41%.
2Market
Open: 41% home · 24% draw · 35% away
Now: 42% home · 24% draw · 35% away
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- E. Waayers — out (Inactive)
- G. van Zwam — out (Inactive)
- R. Weijenberg — out (Knee Injury)
- P. Saathof — out (Knee Injury)
- G. Nauber — out (Broken Leg)
Groningen
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- E. van der Laan — out (Inactive)
- W. Prins — out (Inactive)
- T. Hernes — out (Injury)
- N. Brandis — out (Inactive)
- M. Rente — out (Injury)
- R. Metu — out (Injury)
- T. Mercera — out (Injury)
- O. Zawada — out (Knock)
- S. Resink — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Jeng — out (Leg Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
GO Ahead EaglesDLWDW
- Tue 8 Sep · A v Utrecht 3–3
- Sat 29 Aug · A v AZ Alkmaar 2–5(xG 1.7–2.4)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v ADO Den Haag 3–1
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Feyenoord 2–2
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Willem II 4–1
GroningenDLLWW
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Twente 2–2
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Fortuna Sittard 2–3(xG 1.6–0.9)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v PSV Eindhoven 1–5
- Sun 16 Aug · A v ADO Den Haag 4–1
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Utrecht 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- GO Ahead Eagles have won 2 of their last 5.
- GO Ahead Eagles have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of GO Ahead Eagles's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of GO Ahead Eagles's last 5.
- GO Ahead Eagles kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Groningen have won 2 of their last 5.
- Groningen have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Groningen's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Groningen's last 5.
- Groningen kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
GO Ahead Eagles
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Groningen
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
De Adelaarshorst, Deventer · Referee: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win GO Ahead Eagles vs Groningen?
- Our model makes GO Ahead Eagles the most likely result at 41%. Most likely is not likely — at 41% it does not happen 59% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 42%.
- How many goals are expected in GO Ahead Eagles vs Groningen?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 59%, and under 2.5 at 41%.
- Will both teams score in GO Ahead Eagles vs Groningen?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for GO Ahead Eagles vs Groningen?
- GO Ahead Eagles's reported absences and doubts include E. Waayers, G. van Zwam, R. Weijenberg, P. Saathof and 1 other. Groningen's include E. van der Laan, W. Prins, T. Hernes, N. Brandis and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for GO Ahead Eagles vs Groningen?
- GO Ahead Eagles line up in a 4-2-3-1, Groningen in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.