Eredivisie · Regular Season - 6
TwentevADO Den Haag
Twente
ADO Den Haag·
2 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.7–0.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (13%), then 3-0 (11%), 1-0 (9%). Twente and ADO Den Haag finish on some other score 67% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Twe / ADO | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Twente down the side and ADO Den Haag across. These 94.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 5.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 39% against 51%.
What we think
- Twente80% · Match result
- Over 2.562% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Twente the most likely of the three results, at 80% (we would not be surprised by anything from 64% to 90%). Most likely is not likely: at 80% this result does not happen 20% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 75%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 62%, against the market’s 72% — a 10 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Twente a 75% chance. Our model makes it 80%.
2Market
Open: 79% home · 13% draw · 8% away
Now: 75% home · 15% draw · 10% away
Moved −4pp — the market moved away from Twente
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Twente
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- K. Hlynsson — out (Inactive)
- S. Lemkin — out (Injury)
- S. Lammers — out (Inactive)
- M. Hilgers — out (Knee Injury)
ADO Den Haag
Confirmed · 5-3-2
- L. Reischl — out (Groin Injury)
- A. Pozo — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- M. Jimenez — out (Injury)
- M. Sin — out (Inactive)
- J. Hawkins — out (Hamstring Injury)
- C. Peupion — out (Knee Injury)
- D. Barany — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
TwenteWDWWL
- Wed 9 Sep · H v Telstar 1–0
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Groningen 2–2
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Cambuur 4–1(xG 1.8–0.5)
- Sun 16 Aug · H v PEC Zwolle 3–1
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Heerenveen 0–1
ADO Den HaagLDLLL
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Fortuna Sittard 2–3
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Feyenoord 2–2(xG 0.2–2.5)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v GO Ahead Eagles 1–3
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Groningen 1–4
- Sat 8 Aug · A v AZ Alkmaar 0–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Twente have won 3 of their last 5.
- Twente have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Twente's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Twente's last 5.
- Twente kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- ADO Den Haag have won 0 of their last 5.
- ADO Den Haag have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of ADO Den Haag's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of ADO Den Haag's last 5.
- ADO Den Haag kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Twente
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
ADO Den Haag
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
De Grolsch Veste, Enschede · Referee: Jannick van der Laan, Netherlands
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Twente vs ADO Den Haag?
- Our model makes Twente the most likely result at 80%. Most likely is not likely — at 80% it does not happen 20% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 75%.
- How many goals are expected in Twente vs ADO Den Haag?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 62%, and under 2.5 at 38%.
- Will both teams score in Twente vs ADO Den Haag?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Twente vs ADO Den Haag?
- Twente's reported absences and doubts include K. Hlynsson, S. Lemkin, S. Lammers, M. Hilgers. ADO Den Haag's include L. Reischl, A. Pozo, M. Jimenez, M. Sin and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Twente vs ADO Den Haag?
- Twente line up in a 4-2-3-1, ADO Den Haag in a 5-3-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.