Jupiler Pro League · Regular Season - 6
Club Brugge KVvAntwerp
Club Brugge KV
Antwerp·
3 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.3–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (10%), then 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Club Brugge KV and Antwerp finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Clu / Ant | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Club Brugge KV down the side and Antwerp across. These 96.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 3.1% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 37% against 49%.
What we think
- Club Brugge KV67% · Match result
- Over 2.561% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 63% against a market price of 51% — 12 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 68% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.1 goals, and 3.1 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
Our forecast makes Club Brugge KV the most likely of the three results, at 67% (we would not be surprised by anything from 59% to 76%). Most likely is not likely: at 67% this result does not happen 33% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 79%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 61%, against the market’s 71% — a 10 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Club Brugge KV a 79% chance. Our model makes it 67%.
2Market
Open: 77% home · 15% draw · 9% away
Now: 79% home · 14% draw · 8% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards Club Brugge KV
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Club Brugge KV
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Antwerp
Confirmed · 4-4-2
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Club Brugge KVWLWWW
- Fri 4 Sep · A v Lommel United 1–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Gent 1–2(xG 0.7–1.4)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Cercle Brugge 1–0
- Sat 15 Aug · A v OH Leuven 3–0
- Fri 7 Aug · H v Kortrijk 3–0
AntwerpLLDWW
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Standard Liege 0–1
- Sun 30 Aug · H v St. Truiden 1–4(xG 0.8–3.4)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Genk 4–4
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Kortrijk 3–0
- Sun 9 Aug · H v SK Beveren 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Club Brugge KV have won 4 of their last 5.
- Club Brugge KV have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Club Brugge KV's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Club Brugge KV's last 5.
- Club Brugge KV kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5.
- Antwerp have won 2 of their last 5.
- Antwerp have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Antwerp's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Antwerp's last 5.
- Antwerp kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Club Brugge KV
Rest: 9 days · 2 matches in 14d
Antwerp
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Jan Breydel Stadion, Brugge · Referee: N. Laforge
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Club Brugge KV vs Antwerp?
- Our model makes Club Brugge KV the most likely result at 67%. Most likely is not likely — at 67% it does not happen 33% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 79%.
- How many goals are expected in Club Brugge KV vs Antwerp?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 61%, and under 2.5 at 39%.
- Will both teams score in Club Brugge KV vs Antwerp?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Club Brugge KV vs Antwerp?
- Club Brugge KV line up in a 4-2-3-1, Antwerp in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.