Jupiler Pro League · Regular Season - 6
GenkvGent
Genk
Gent·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.7–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Genk and Gent finish on some other score 70% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Gen / Gen | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Genk down the side and Gent across. These 99.1% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.9% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 32% against 27%.
What we think
- Genk48% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Genk the most likely of the three results, at 48% (we would not be surprised by anything from 40% to 56%). Most likely is not likely: at 48% this result does not happen 52% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 44%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, against the market’s 50% — a 4 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Genk a 44% chance. Our model makes it 48%.
2Market
Open: 44% home · 28% draw · 28% away
Now: 44% home · 28% draw · 28% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Genk
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Gent
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
GenkDWDWL
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Anderlecht 0–0
- Fri 28 Aug · H v SK Beveren 4–0(xG 3.1–0.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Antwerp 4–4
- Sat 15 Aug · H v KVC Westerlo 3–2
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Zulte Waregem 1–2
GentWWWWW
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Cercle Brugge 3–0
- Thu 3 Sep · H v OH Leuven 1–0
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Club Brugge KV 2–1(xG 1.4–0.7)
- Sun 16 Aug · A v RAAL La Louvière 2–1
- Sun 9 Aug · H v KV Mechelen 2–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Genk have won 2 of their last 5.
- Genk have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Genk's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Genk's last 5.
- Genk kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Gent have won 5 of their last 5.
- Gent have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Gent's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Gent's last 5.
- Gent kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Genk
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Gent
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Cegeka Arena, Genk · Referee: N. Verboomen
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Genk vs Gent?
- Our model makes Genk the most likely result at 48%. Most likely is not likely — at 48% it does not happen 52% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 44%.
- How many goals are expected in Genk vs Gent?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Genk vs Gent?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Genk vs Gent?
- Genk line up in a 4-2-3-1, Gent in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.