Jupiler Pro League · Regular Season - 5
Cercle BruggevGent
Cercle Brugge
Gent·
0 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Cercle Brugge40% · Match result
- Over 1.580% · Goals
- Yes59% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Cercle Brugge the most likely of the three results, at 40% (we would not be surprised by anything from 32% to 49%). Most likely is not likely: at 40% this result does not happen 60% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Gent the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 33%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Gent a 40% chance. Our model makes it 35%.
2Market
Open: 34% home · 27% draw · 40% away
Now: 33% home · 27% draw · 40% away
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed · 3-4-3
No reported absences.
Gent
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Cercle BruggeLLDD
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Lommel United 0–1(xG 1.3–1.6)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Club Brugge KV 0–1
- Fri 14 Aug · H v St. Truiden 3–3
- Sat 8 Aug · A v Standard Liege 2–2
GentWWWW
- Thu 3 Sep · H v OH Leuven 1–0
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Club Brugge KV 2–1(xG 1.4–0.7)
- Sun 16 Aug · A v RAAL La Louvière 2–1
- Sun 9 Aug · H v KV Mechelen 2–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Cercle Brugge have won 0 of their last 4.
- Cercle Brugge have scored in 2 of their last 4.
- 2 of Cercle Brugge's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Cercle Brugge's last 4.
- Cercle Brugge kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.
- Gent have won 4 of their last 4.
- Gent have scored in 4 of their last 4.
- 2 of Gent's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Gent's last 4.
- Gent kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Cercle Brugge
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Gent
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Jan Breydel Stadion, Brugge · Referee: Y. Araki
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Cercle Brugge vs Gent?
- Our model makes Cercle Brugge the most likely result at 40%. Most likely is not likely — at 40% it does not happen 60% of the time. The market instead favours Gent at 40%.
- Will both teams score in Cercle Brugge vs Gent?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance, against 41% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Cercle Brugge vs Gent?
- Cercle Brugge line up in a 3-4-3, Gent in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.