Jupiler Pro League · Regular Season - 5
KortrijkvZulte Waregem
Kortrijk
Zulte Waregem·
0 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Zulte Waregem43% · Match result
- Over 1.580% · Goals
- Yes58% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Zulte Waregem the most likely of the three results, at 43% (we would not be surprised by anything from 32% to 54%). Most likely is not likely: at 43% this result does not happen 57% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 43%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Zulte Waregem a 43% chance. Our model makes it 43%.
2Market
Open: 29% home · 26% draw · 45% away
Now: 30% home · 27% draw · 43% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from Zulte Waregem
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Kortrijk
Confirmed · 4-3-3
No reported absences.
Zulte Waregem
Confirmed · 4-3-3
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
KortrijkLLLL
- Thu 3 Sep · A v Anderlecht 0–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Charleroi 1–3(xG 1.2–1.7)
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Antwerp 0–3
- Fri 7 Aug · A v Club Brugge KV 0–3
Zulte WaregemDWDW
- Sun 30 Aug · A v KVC Westerlo 2–2(xG 1.5–2.2)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v SK Beveren 4–0
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Union St. Gilloise 0–0
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Genk 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Kortrijk have won 0 of their last 4.
- Kortrijk have scored in 1 of their last 4.
- 3 of Kortrijk's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Kortrijk's last 4.
- Kortrijk kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.
- Zulte Waregem have won 2 of their last 4.
- Zulte Waregem have scored in 3 of their last 4.
- 3 of Zulte Waregem's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Zulte Waregem's last 4.
- Zulte Waregem kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Kortrijk
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Zulte Waregem
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Guldensporen Stadion, Kortrijk · Referee: J. Vergoote
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Kortrijk vs Zulte Waregem?
- Our model makes Zulte Waregem the most likely result at 43%. Most likely is not likely — at 43% it does not happen 57% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 43%.
- Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Zulte Waregem?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Kortrijk vs Zulte Waregem?
- Kortrijk line up in a 4-3-3, Zulte Waregem in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.