Who will win SK Beveren vs OH Leuven?

Our model makes SK Beveren the most likely result at 40%. Most likely is not likely — at 40% it does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 42%.

Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs OH Leuven?

Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.

What are the confirmed lineups for SK Beveren vs OH Leuven?

SK Beveren line up in a 4-1-3-2, OH Leuven in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.

Jupiler Pro League · Regular Season - 5

SK BeverenvOH Leuven

Sun 6 Sep · 17:15 UTC

3 – 0 (FT)

1Headline

What we think

SK Beveren40% · Match result
Over 1.574% · Goals
Yes53% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.

Our forecast makes SK Beveren the most likely of the three results, at 40% (we would not be surprised by anything from 23% to 61%). Most likely is not likely: at 40% this result does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 42%.

Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.

For comparison, the market gives SK Beveren a 42% chance. Our model makes it 40%.

SK BeverenModel 40% [23%–61%]Market 42%

2Market

Open: 40% home · 26% draw · 34% away

Now: 42% home · 26% draw · 32% away

Moved −2pp — the market moved away from OH Leuven

Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home40%vs42%−2pp

Draw28%vs26%+2pp

Away31%vs32%−1pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 2.5—vs59%

Under 2.5—vs41%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.574%vs82%−8pp

Under 1.526%vs18%+8pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 3.5—vs37%

Under 3.5—vs63%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes53%vs63%−10pp

No47%vs37%+10pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

SK Beveren

Confirmed · 4-1-3-2

No reported absences.

OH Leuven

Confirmed · 3-4-2-1

No reported absences.

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

SK BeverenLLWL

Fri 28 Aug · A v Genk 0–4(xG 0.6–3.1)
Sat 22 Aug · A v Zulte Waregem 0–4
Sun 16 Aug · H v Anderlecht 1–0
Sun 9 Aug · A v Antwerp 1–2

OH LeuvenLLLL

Thu 3 Sep · A v Gent 0–1
Sat 29 Aug · H v Standard Liege 1–2(xG 1.9–1.4)
Sat 15 Aug · H v Club Brugge KV 0–3
Sun 9 Aug · A v Charleroi 1–3

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

SK Beveren

SK Beveren have won 1 of their last 4.
SK Beveren have scored in 2 of their last 4.
3 of SK Beveren's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 1 of SK Beveren's last 4.
SK Beveren kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.

OH Leuven

OH Leuven have won 0 of their last 4.
OH Leuven have scored in 2 of their last 4.
3 of OH Leuven's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 2 of OH Leuven's last 4.
OH Leuven kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

SK Beveren

Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d

OH Leuven

Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d

Freethiel Stadion, Beveren · Referee: W. Smet

8Red flags

Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.

Common questions

Who will win SK Beveren vs OH Leuven?: Our model makes SK Beveren the most likely result at 40%. Most likely is not likely — at 40% it does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 42%.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs OH Leuven?: Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
What are the confirmed lineups for SK Beveren vs OH Leuven?: SK Beveren line up in a 4-1-3-2, OH Leuven in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.