Jupiler Pro League · Regular Season - 5
AnderlechtvGenk
Anderlecht
Genk·
0 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Anderlecht40% · Match result
- Over 1.580% · Goals
- Yes58% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Anderlecht the most likely of the three results, at 40% (we would not be surprised by anything from 33% to 48%). Most likely is not likely: at 40% this result does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 42%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Anderlecht a 42% chance. Our model makes it 40%.
2Market
Open: 39% home · 27% draw · 34% away
Now: 42% home · 26% draw · 32% away
Moved +3pp — the market moved towards Anderlecht
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Anderlecht
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Genk
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
AnderlechtWLLW
- Thu 3 Sep · H v Kortrijk 1–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Union St. Gilloise 0–3(xG 1.3–1.6)
- Sun 16 Aug · A v SK Beveren 0–1
- Sun 9 Aug · H v RAAL La Louvière 2–1
GenkWDWL
- Fri 28 Aug · H v SK Beveren 4–0(xG 3.1–0.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Antwerp 4–4
- Sat 15 Aug · H v KVC Westerlo 3–2
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Zulte Waregem 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Anderlecht have won 2 of their last 4.
- Anderlecht have scored in 2 of their last 4.
- 2 of Anderlecht's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Anderlecht's last 4.
- Anderlecht kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.
- Genk have won 2 of their last 4.
- Genk have scored in 4 of their last 4.
- 4 of Genk's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Genk's last 4.
- Genk kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Anderlecht
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Genk
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Lotto Park, Brussels · Referee: J. Boterberg
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Anderlecht vs Genk?
- Our model makes Anderlecht the most likely result at 40%. Most likely is not likely — at 40% it does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 42%.
- Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Genk?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.