Jupiler Pro League · Regular Season - 6
Zulte WaregemvCharleroi
Zulte Waregem
Charleroi·
0 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.5–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Zulte Waregem and Charleroi finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Zul / Cha | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Zulte Waregem down the side and Charleroi across. These 99.2% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.8% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Zulte Waregem39% · Match result
- Over 2.557% · Goals
- Yes58% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Zulte Waregem the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 31% to 48%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 57%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Zulte Waregem
Confirmed · 4-3-2-1
No reported absences.
Charleroi
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Zulte WaregemWDWDW
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Kortrijk 2–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v KVC Westerlo 2–2(xG 1.5–2.2)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v SK Beveren 4–0
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Union St. Gilloise 0–0
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Genk 2–1
CharleroiLWWWW
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Union St. Gilloise 2–3
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Kortrijk 3–1(xG 1.7–1.2)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v KV Mechelen 2–0
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Lommel United 1–0
- Sun 9 Aug · H v OH Leuven 3–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Zulte Waregem have won 3 of their last 5.
- Zulte Waregem have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Zulte Waregem's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Zulte Waregem's last 5.
- Zulte Waregem kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
- Charleroi have won 4 of their last 5.
- Charleroi have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Charleroi's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Charleroi's last 5.
- Charleroi kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Zulte Waregem
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Charleroi
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Elindus Arena, Waregem · Referee: B. Verbeke
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
- Our model makes Zulte Waregem the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 57%, and under 2.5 at 43%.
- Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
- Zulte Waregem line up in a 4-3-2-1, Charleroi in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.