Who will win Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?

Our model makes Union St. Gilloise the most likely result at 52%. Most likely is not likely — at 52% it does not happen 48% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 44%.

Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?

Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.

What are the confirmed lineups for Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?

Charleroi line up in a 4-2-3-1, Union St. Gilloise in a 3-4-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.

Jupiler Pro League · Regular Season - 5

CharleroivUnion St. Gilloise

Sat 5 Sep · 14:00 UTC

2 – 3 (FT)

1Headline

What we think

Union St. Gilloise52% · Match result
Over 1.574% · Goals
Yes52% · Both teams to score

Our bet on this match

Match result: Union St. Gilloise

Best price 2.20 at 10BetThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.

We make this 52% against a market price of 44% — 8 points of difference.
Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 67% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.

Our forecast makes Union St. Gilloise the most likely of the three results, at 52% (we would not be surprised by anything from 44% to 60%). Most likely is not likely: at 52% this result does not happen 48% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 44%.

Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.

For comparison, the market gives Union St. Gilloise a 44% chance. Our model makes it 52%.

Union St. GilloiseModel 52% [44%–60%]Market 44%

2Market

Open: 29% home · 27% draw · 44% away

Now: 29% home · 27% draw · 44% away

Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home21%vs29%−8pp

Draw27%vs27%0pp

Away52%vs44%+8pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 2.5—vs49%

Under 2.5—vs51%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.574%vs74%0pp

Under 1.526%vs26%0pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 3.5—vs28%

Under 3.5—vs72%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes52%vs55%−3pp

No48%vs45%+3pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Charleroi

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

No reported absences.

Union St. Gilloise

Confirmed · 3-4-3

No reported absences.

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

CharleroiWWWW

Sat 29 Aug · A v Kortrijk 3–1(xG 1.7–1.2)
Sat 22 Aug · H v KV Mechelen 2–0
Sun 16 Aug · A v Lommel United 1–0
Sun 9 Aug · H v OH Leuven 3–1

Union St. GilloiseWWDW

Wed 2 Sep · A v St. Truiden 3–0
Sun 30 Aug · H v Anderlecht 3–0(xG 1.6–1.3)
Sat 15 Aug · H v Zulte Waregem 0–0
Sat 8 Aug · A v KVC Westerlo 5–1

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Charleroi

Charleroi have won 4 of their last 4.
Charleroi have scored in 4 of their last 4.
2 of Charleroi's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 2 of Charleroi's last 4.
Charleroi kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 4.

Union St. Gilloise

Union St. Gilloise have won 3 of their last 4.
Union St. Gilloise have scored in 3 of their last 4.
3 of Union St. Gilloise's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 1 of Union St. Gilloise's last 4.
Union St. Gilloise kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 4.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Charleroi

Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d

Union St. Gilloise

Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d

Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi · Referee: N. Laforge

8Red flags

Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.

Common questions

Who will win Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?: Our model makes Union St. Gilloise the most likely result at 52%. Most likely is not likely — at 52% it does not happen 48% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 44%.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?: Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
What are the confirmed lineups for Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise?: Charleroi line up in a 4-2-3-1, Union St. Gilloise in a 3-4-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.