Jupiler Pro League · Regular Season - 5
St. TruidenvRAAL La Louvière
St. Truiden
RAAL La Louvière·
4 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- St. Truiden56% · Match result
- Over 1.576% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes St. Truiden the most likely of the three results, at 56% (we would not be surprised by anything from 47% to 65%). Most likely is not likely: at 56% this result does not happen 44% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 59%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives St. Truiden a 59% chance. Our model makes it 56%.
2Market
Open: 59% home · 23% draw · 18% away
Now: 59% home · 23% draw · 18% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
St. Truiden
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
RAAL La Louvière
Confirmed · 3-4-3
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
St. TruidenLWDD
- Wed 2 Sep · H v Union St. Gilloise 0–3
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Antwerp 4–1(xG 3.4–0.8)
- Fri 14 Aug · A v Cercle Brugge 3–3
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Lommel United 1–1
RAAL La LouvièreDLLL
- Sat 29 Aug · H v KV Mechelen 2–2(xG 2.2–2.1)
- Fri 21 Aug · A v Standard Liege 0–2
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Gent 1–2
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Anderlecht 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- St. Truiden have won 1 of their last 4.
- St. Truiden have scored in 3 of their last 4.
- 3 of St. Truiden's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of St. Truiden's last 4.
- St. Truiden kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.
- RAAL La Louvière have won 0 of their last 4.
- RAAL La Louvière have scored in 3 of their last 4.
- 3 of RAAL La Louvière's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of RAAL La Louvière's last 4.
- RAAL La Louvière kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
St. Truiden
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
RAAL La Louvière
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Daio Wasabi Stayen, Sint-Truiden · Referee: B. Verbeke
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win St. Truiden vs RAAL La Louvière?
- Our model makes St. Truiden the most likely result at 56%. Most likely is not likely — at 56% it does not happen 44% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 59%.
- Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs RAAL La Louvière?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for St. Truiden vs RAAL La Louvière?
- St. Truiden line up in a 4-2-3-1, RAAL La Louvière in a 3-4-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.