Jupiler Pro League · Regular Season - 5
KV MechelenvKVC Westerlo
KV Mechelen
KVC Westerlo·
0 – 4 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- KV Mechelen42% · Match result
- Over 1.582% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes KV Mechelen the most likely of the three results, at 42% (we would not be surprised by anything from 34% to 50%). Most likely is not likely: at 42% this result does not happen 58% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 47%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives KV Mechelen a 47% chance. Our model makes it 42%.
2Market
Open: 45% home · 25% draw · 30% away
Now: 47% home · 26% draw · 27% away
Moved −3pp — the market moved away from KVC Westerlo
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
KV Mechelen
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
No reported absences.
KVC Westerlo
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
KV MechelenDLDL
- Sat 29 Aug · A v RAAL La Louvière 2–2(xG 2.1–2.2)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Charleroi 0–2
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Standard Liege 3–3
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Gent 0–2
KVC WesterloDLLL
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Zulte Waregem 2–2(xG 2.2–1.5)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Lommel United 0–4
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Genk 2–3
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Union St. Gilloise 1–5
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- KV Mechelen have won 0 of their last 4.
- KV Mechelen have scored in 2 of their last 4.
- 2 of KV Mechelen's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of KV Mechelen's last 4.
- KV Mechelen kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.
- KVC Westerlo have won 0 of their last 4.
- KVC Westerlo have scored in 3 of their last 4.
- 4 of KVC Westerlo's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of KVC Westerlo's last 4.
- KVC Westerlo kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
KV Mechelen
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
KVC Westerlo
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Veoliastadion Achter De Kazerne, Mechelen · Referee: Lothar D'hondt, Belgium
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win KV Mechelen vs KVC Westerlo?
- Our model makes KV Mechelen the most likely result at 42%. Most likely is not likely — at 42% it does not happen 58% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 47%.
- Will both teams score in KV Mechelen vs KVC Westerlo?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for KV Mechelen vs KVC Westerlo?
- KV Mechelen line up in a 3-4-2-1, KVC Westerlo in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.