Jupiler Pro League · Regular Season - 5
Standard LiegevAntwerp
Standard Liege
Antwerp·
1 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Antwerp36% · Match result
- Over 1.573% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Antwerp the most likely of the three results, at 36% (we would not be surprised by anything from 28% to 44%). Most likely is not likely: at 36% this result does not happen 64% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Standard Liege the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 29%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Standard Liege a 44% chance. Our model makes it 35%.
2Market
Open: 44% home · 27% draw · 29% away
Now: 44% home · 27% draw · 29% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Standard Liege
Confirmed · 4-3-3
No reported absences.
Antwerp
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Standard LiegeWWDD
- Sat 29 Aug · A v OH Leuven 2–1(xG 1.4–1.9)
- Fri 21 Aug · H v RAAL La Louvière 2–0
- Sun 16 Aug · A v KV Mechelen 3–3
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Cercle Brugge 2–2
AntwerpLDWW
- Sun 30 Aug · H v St. Truiden 1–4(xG 0.8–3.4)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Genk 4–4
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Kortrijk 3–0
- Sun 9 Aug · H v SK Beveren 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Standard Liege have won 2 of their last 4.
- Standard Liege have scored in 4 of their last 4.
- 3 of Standard Liege's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Standard Liege's last 4.
- Standard Liege kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.
- Antwerp have won 2 of their last 4.
- Antwerp have scored in 4 of their last 4.
- 4 of Antwerp's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Antwerp's last 4.
- Antwerp kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Standard Liege
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Antwerp
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Maurice Dufrasnestadion · Referee: L. Visser
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Standard Liege vs Antwerp?
- Our model makes Antwerp the most likely result at 36%. Most likely is not likely — at 36% it does not happen 64% of the time. The market instead favours Standard Liege at 44%.
- Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs Antwerp?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Standard Liege vs Antwerp?
- Standard Liege line up in a 4-3-3, Antwerp in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.