Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 3
Le HavrevStade Brestois 29
Le Havre
Stade Brestois 29·
1 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Le Havre38% · Match result
- Over 1.576% · Goals
- Yes55% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Le Havre the most likely of the three results, at 38% (we would not be surprised by anything from 31% to 46%). Most likely is not likely: at 38% this result does not happen 62% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 36%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Le Havre a 36% chance. Our model makes it 38%.
2Market
Open: 36% home · 29% draw · 35% away
Now: 36% home · 29% draw · 35% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Le Havre
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- T. Pembele — out (Inactive)
- R. Ndiaye — out (Groin Injury)
- J. Mwanga — out (Red Card)
- L. Mpasi-Nzau — out (Injury)
- P. Argney — out (Injury)
- S. Zagadou — out (Injury)
- A. Toure — out (Knee Injury)
- F. Mambimbi — out (Injury)
Stade Brestois 29
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- N. Edjouma — out (Muscle Injury)
- M. Balde — out (Injury)
- J. Bourgault — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Diambou — out (Ankle Injury)
- B. Chardonnet — out (Calf Injury)
- R. Cagnon — out (Shoulder Injury)
- H. Magnetti — out (Muscle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Le HavreDLWLD
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Lyon 1–1(xG 0.7–1.7)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Monaco 0–1(xG 0.6–1.4)
- Sun 17 May · A v Lorient 2–0
- Sun 10 May · H v Marseille 0–1
- Sun 3 May · A v Lille 1–1
Stade Brestois 29DDDLL
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Toulouse 2–2(xG 2.7–1.1)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Le Mans 2–2
- Sun 17 May · H v Angers 1–1
- Wed 13 May · H v Strasbourg 1–2
- Sun 10 May · A v Paris Saint Germain 0–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Le Havre have won 1 of their last 5.
- Le Havre have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 0 of Le Havre's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Le Havre's last 5.
- Le Havre kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Stade Brestois 29 have won 0 of their last 5.
- Stade Brestois 29 have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Stade Brestois 29's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Stade Brestois 29's last 5.
- Stade Brestois 29 kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 6 meetings, Le Havre have won 1, Stade Brestois 29 5, with 0 drawn.
- Le Havre W–D–L
- 1–0–5
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 6
- Both scored
- 1 of 6
- Stade Brestois 29 2–0 Le Havre
- Le Havre 1–0 Stade Brestois 29
- Le Havre 0–1 Stade Brestois 29
- Stade Brestois 29 2–0 Le Havre
- Stade Brestois 29 1–0 Le Havre
- Le Havre 1–2 Stade Brestois 29
7Context
Le Havre
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Stade Brestois 29
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Stade Oceane, Le Havre · Referee: Marc Bollengier, France
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29?
- Our model makes Le Havre the most likely result at 38%. Most likely is not likely — at 38% it does not happen 62% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 36%.
- Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29?
- Le Havre's reported absences and doubts include T. Pembele, R. Ndiaye, J. Mwanga, L. Mpasi-Nzau and 4 others. Stade Brestois 29's include N. Edjouma, M. Balde, J. Bourgault, M. Diambou and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29?
- Le Havre line up in a 3-4-2-1, Stade Brestois 29 in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Stade Brestois 29?
- In their last 6 meetings, Le Havre have won 1, Stade Brestois 29 5, with 0 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of those 6 meetings, and both teams scored in 1.