Who will win Nice vs Le Mans?

Our model makes Nice the most likely result at 45%. Most likely is not likely — at 45% it does not happen 55% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 55%.

Will both teams score in Nice vs Le Mans?

Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.

What is the team news for Nice vs Le Mans?

Nice's reported absences and doubts include A. Mendy, H. Boudaoui, M. Amoura, M. Sanson and 5 others. Le Mans's include N. Kocik, M. Rossignol, L. Buades, E. Colas and 9 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.

What are the confirmed lineups for Nice vs Le Mans?

Nice line up in a 3-4-2-1, Le Mans in a 3-5-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 3

NicevLe Mans

Sat 5 Sep · 18:45 UTC

1 – 1 (FT)

1Headline

What we think

Nice45% · Match result
Over 1.574% · Goals
Yes53% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.

Our forecast makes Nice the most likely of the three results, at 45% (we would not be surprised by anything from 24% to 65%). Most likely is not likely: at 45% this result does not happen 55% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 55%.

Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.

For comparison, the market gives Nice a 55% chance. Our model makes it 45%.

NiceModel 45% [24%–65%]Market 55%

2Market

Open: 52% home · 26% draw · 22% away

Now: 55% home · 25% draw · 20% away

Moved +3pp — the market moved towards Nice

Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home45%vs55%−10pp

Draw28%vs25%+3pp

Away27%vs20%+7pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 2.5—vs53%

Under 2.5—vs47%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.574%vs78%−4pp

Under 1.526%vs22%+4pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 3.5—vs32%

Under 3.5—vs68%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes53%vs55%−2pp

No47%vs45%+2pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Nice

Confirmed · 3-4-2-1

A. Mendy — out (Knee Injury)
H. Boudaoui — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
M. Amoura — out (Thigh Injury)
M. Sanson — out (Surgery)
A. Abdi — out (Surgery)
A. Witsel — out (Inactive)
T. Moffi — out (Inactive)
M. Bombito — out (Leg Injury)
L. Abergel — out (Knee Injury)

Le Mans

Confirmed · 3-5-2

N. Kocik — out (Ankle Injury)
M. Rossignol — out (Coach's decision)
L. Buades — out (Knock)
E. Colas — out (Injury)
S. Yohou — out (Thigh Injury)
E. Quarshie — out (Coach's decision)
W. Harhouz — out (Coach's decision)
T. Eyoum — out (Coach's decision)
D. Sidibe — out (Red Card)
H. Diallo — out (Inactive)
Y. Larouci — out (Concussion)
R. Bamba — out (Loan agreement)
H. Voyer — out (Yellow Cards)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

NiceLDWDD

Sun 30 Aug · A v Paris FC 0–3(xG 0.6–2.7)
Sat 22 Aug · H v Lorient 0–0
Fri 29 May · H v Saint Etienne 4–1
Tue 26 May · A v Saint Etienne 0–0
Sun 17 May · H v Metz 0–0

Le MansLD

Sun 30 Aug · A v Rennes 2–3(xG 3.0–2.7)
Sat 22 Aug · H v Stade Brestois 29 2–2

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Nice

Nice have won 1 of their last 5.
Nice have scored in 1 of their last 5.
2 of Nice's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 1 of Nice's last 5.
Nice kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.

Le Mans

Le Mans have won 0 of their last 2.
Le Mans have scored in 2 of their last 2.
2 of Le Mans's last 2 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 2 of Le Mans's last 2.
Le Mans kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 2.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Nice

Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d

Le Mans

Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d

Allianz Riviera, Nice · Referee: Jeremie Pignard, France

8Red flags

Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.

Common questions

Who will win Nice vs Le Mans?: Our model makes Nice the most likely result at 45%. Most likely is not likely — at 45% it does not happen 55% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 55%.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Le Mans?: Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Nice vs Le Mans?: Nice's reported absences and doubts include A. Mendy, H. Boudaoui, M. Amoura, M. Sanson and 5 others. Le Mans's include N. Kocik, M. Rossignol, L. Buades, E. Colas and 9 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for Nice vs Le Mans?: Nice line up in a 3-4-2-1, Le Mans in a 3-5-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.