Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 3
LensvLorient
Lens
Lorient·
0 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Lens63% · Match result
- Over 1.580% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Lens the most likely of the three results, at 63% (we would not be surprised by anything from 53% to 71%). Most likely is not likely: at 63% this result does not happen 37% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 62%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Lens a 62% chance. Our model makes it 63%.
2Market
Open: 66% home · 21% draw · 14% away
Now: 62% home · 21% draw · 16% away
Moved −4pp — the market moved away from Lens
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Lens
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- Y. Titraoui — out (Injury)
- S. Sagnan — out (Red Card)
- M. Nawrocki — out (Injury)
- N. Celik — out (Injury)
- J. Gradit — out (Thigh Injury)
- O. Edouard — out (Personal Reasons)
- J. Chavez — out (Thigh Injury)
- S. Baidoo — out (Knee Injury)
- K. Antonio — out (Red Card)
- S. Abdulhamid — out (Contusion)
Lorient
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- N. Mbamba — out (Muscle Injury)
- B. Fadiga — out (Injury)
- M. Bamba — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
LensLWWLW
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Strasbourg 1–2(xG 2.9–1.7)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Auxerre 5–2
- Sun 17 May · A v Lyon 4–0
- Wed 13 May · H v Paris Saint Germain 0–2
- Fri 8 May · H v Nantes 1–0
LorientLDLWD
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Estac Troyes 1–2(xG 1.1–1.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Nice 0–0
- Sun 17 May · H v Le Havre 0–2
- Sun 10 May · A v Metz 4–0
- Sat 2 May · A v Paris Saint Germain 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Lens have won 3 of their last 5.
- Lens have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Lens's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Lens's last 5.
- Lens kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Lorient have won 1 of their last 5.
- Lorient have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Lorient's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Lorient's last 5.
- Lorient kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 8 meetings, Lens have won 4, Lorient 2, with 2 drawn.
- Lens W–D–L
- 4–2–2
- Over 2.5
- 5 of 8
- Both scored
- 4 of 8
- Lorient 2–1 Lens
- Lens 3–0 Lorient
- Lens 2–0 Lorient
- Lorient 0–0 Lens
- Lorient 1–3 Lens
- Lens 5–2 Lorient
- Lorient 2–0 Lens
- Lens 2–2 Lorient
7Context
Lens
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Lorient
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens · Referee: Eric Wattellier, France
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Lens vs Lorient?
- Our model makes Lens the most likely result at 63%. Most likely is not likely — at 63% it does not happen 37% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 62%.
- Will both teams score in Lens vs Lorient?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Lens vs Lorient?
- Lens's reported absences and doubts include Y. Titraoui, S. Sagnan, M. Nawrocki, N. Celik and 6 others. Lorient's include N. Mbamba, B. Fadiga, M. Bamba. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Lens vs Lorient?
- Lens line up in a 3-4-2-1, Lorient in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Lens and Lorient?
- In their last 8 meetings, Lens have won 4, Lorient 2, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of those 8 meetings, and both teams scored in 4.