Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 6
FamalicaovSporting CP
Famalicao
Sporting CP·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–20.9–1.8 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (10%). Famalicao and Sporting CP finish on some other score 66% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Fam / Spo | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Famalicao down the side and Sporting CP across. These 99.0% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.0% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 1.5: 77% against 78%.
What we think
- Sporting CP56% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Sporting CP the most likely of the three results, at 56% (we would not be surprised by anything from 48% to 63%). Most likely is not likely: at 56% this result does not happen 44% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 66%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, which is what the market has it at too (53%).
For comparison, the market gives Sporting CP a 66% chance. Our model makes it 56%.
2Market
Open: 13% home · 21% draw · 66% away
Now: 13% home · 21% draw · 66% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Famalicao
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Sporting CP
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FamalicaoDDLLD
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Estrela 2–2
- Sun 30 Aug · H v GIL Vicente 0–0(xG 0.2–0.3)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Santa Clara 0–1
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Maritimo 1–2
- Fri 7 Aug · A v Estoril 1–1
Sporting CPWWWWD
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Nacional 2–0
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Rio Ave 4–0(xG 1.7–0.5)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Alverca 3–1
- Fri 14 Aug · H v Vitória SC 3–2
- Sat 8 Aug · A v Estrela 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Famalicao have won 0 of their last 5.
- Famalicao have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Famalicao's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Famalicao's last 5.
- Famalicao kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Sporting CP have won 4 of their last 5.
- Sporting CP have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Sporting CP's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Sporting CP's last 5.
- Sporting CP kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Famalicao
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Sporting CP
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Estádio Municipal de Famalicão, Vila Nova de Famalicao · Referee: Luís Godinho, Portugal
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Famalicao vs Sporting CP?
- Our model makes Sporting CP the most likely result at 56%. Most likely is not likely — at 56% it does not happen 44% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 66%.
- How many goals are expected in Famalicao vs Sporting CP?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Sporting CP?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Famalicao vs Sporting CP?
- Famalicao line up in a 4-2-3-1, Sporting CP in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.